The World Bank expects Latin America to grow by around 4,9% this year

The Fund will publish its semi-annual report tomorrow.


Latin America has managed to weather the financial turbulence coming from the US thanks to its better macroeconomic health, according to the World Bank (WB), which forecasts that the region will grow between 4,9 and 5 percent this year.

The World Bank's forecasts are in line with those released last spring by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), which at the time predicted a growth in Latin American Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of 4,9 percent.

The Fund will release its semi-annual "World Economic Outlook" report tomorrow, which offers growth projections for all regions and countries of the world.

The World Bank's chief economist, Augusto de la Torre, noted today that the publication of this report coincides with an environment of greater global uncertainty given the questions surrounding the evolution of the current credit crisis in the US.

He celebrated, in that sense, that the impact of that crisis has been "modest" in Latin America, although he acknowledged that the situation could change radically if the US economy slows down more than expected.

In that case, "the repercussions on Latin America would be much more significant than what we have seen so far," said De la Torre, who added that this would be especially true in countries more integrated with the US, such as Mexico and the Central American nations.

Furthermore, he referred to the appreciation of local currencies observed in several Latin American countries as "a very complicated dilemma" for the governments of the region.

He pointed out that, although this revaluation is partly due to capital inflows and favorable expectations for future growth, it can be detrimental to the export sector by reducing the competitiveness of goods sold abroad.

He also highlighted that Latin American countries are now better able to absorb the impacts of global turbulence thanks to their healthier balance sheets and greater exchange rate flexibility.

On another note, he said he was eagerly awaiting the creation of the Bank of the South, a new regional multilateral entity that could be launched in the coming months.

The organization, an initiative of Venezuelan President Hugo Chávez, has a capital of $7.000 billion.

Last week, Colombian President Álvaro Uribe asked the seven founding members (Argentina, Brazil, Bolivia, Ecuador, Paraguay, Uruguay, and Venezuela) to admit his country into this new regional multilateral entity.

Uribe insisted, however, that his country's eventual entry into the organization is not a rejection of the World Bank, the Inter-American Development Bank (IDB) or the IMF.

Chávez has presented the project as a counterweight to the influence of the US and multilateral organizations based in Washington, as well as an instrument for the region to take control of its economic destiny.

For his part, De la Torre described the Bank of the South today as a new "complementary" actor that is welcome in the world of development aid.

The World Bank maintains that the development financing needs in the area are "enormous" and assures that there is room for everyone.

Currently, the Bank grants annual loans to countries in the region worth about $8.000 billion.

To that we should add the 7.000 billion from the IDB, the 7.000 billion from the Andean Development Corporation (CAF), and the 20.000 billion invested by the National Development Bank (BANDES) in Brazil alone.

Argentina, Colombia, Mexico and Peru are the Bank's main clients in the region.

The organization expects that the recent reduction in interest rates on loans that the Bank grants to middle-income countries such as Brazil will translate into a greater role for the Bank in those nations.

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