China's foreign trade defies tensions and accelerates growth to 8% in September

 

The data, published by the National Statistics Office and the General Customs Administration, confirm the the Asian giant's ability to diversify its markets.

 

Exports led the expansion, increasing 8,3% year-on-year to $328.600 billion. Imports also showed strength, rising 7,4%. These results were both above economic experts' expectations.

 

The total value of trade for the month reached 4,04 trillion yuan (approximately US$567.255 billion). As a result, the trade surplus soared to 645.470 billion yuan (US$90.549 billion), representing a 10,79% increase compared to September of the previous year.

 

On a cumulative basis, in the first nine months of 2025, China's foreign trade grew by 4% in yuan terms. Exports grew by 7,1%, while imports recorded a slight contraction of 0,2%.

 

Diversification Offsets US Fall

 

This momentum in the figures is largely explained by the destination diversification strategy. The faster growth in exports to partners such as the European Union and countries of the ASEAN managed to offset the sharp 27% drop in exports to the United States, a market hit hard by tariffs imposed by the US administration.

 

The figures reflect a sustained effort by Beijing to stabilize its foreign trade by the end of 2025, maintaining robust growth despite geopolitical and economic challenges.

 

Future perspectives

 

Experts highlight the structural strength of Chinese trade. Michelle Lam, economist for Greater China at Societe Generale SA, commented: “Chinese exports have remained resilient despite US tariffs, thanks to a diversified export market and strong competitiveness. The limited impact of US tariffs on global trade so far has likely emboldened China to adopt a tougher stance in US-China trade negotiations.”

 

On the other hand, the General Customs Administration remains cautious about the future. Wang JunThe deputy director of the entity warned: “The current external environment remains bleak and complex. Foreign trade faces increasing uncertainty and difficulties. Given last year’s high base, we need to work hard to stabilize trade development in the fourth quarter.”

 

In a context of heightened tension, including President Donald Trump's threat to impose an additional 100% tariff and China's recent restriction on rare earth exports, sources from the Chinese Ministry of Commerce have reiterated their firm but measured stance: "We don't want a tariff war, but we are not afraid of one."

 

 

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