Global trade reaches $35 trillion in 2025 despite growing geopolitical fragility

 

UN Trade and Development It reported that global trade reached a record $35 trillion in 2025. This growth, driven by Asia Oriental y África, is threatened by conflicts in the Estrecho de Ormuz and the increase in logistics costs.

 

Robust growth, but marked by inequality

 

The global trade update report highlights that, while absolute figures show an expansion of $2,5 trillion by 2025, the outlook is increasingly uncertain. Much of this increase is due to the resilience of developing economies, especially in the regions of Asia Oriental y África, along with a strengthening of South-South trade. However, the UN Trade and Development He warns that this growth is uneven and that many countries are still not fully benefiting from these gains.

 

The disturbances in the Oriente Medio and the interruptions in the Estrecho de Ormuz They are disrupting energy flows and shipping routes. This translates into increased trade costs and additional pressure on nations with limited fiscal space, which must cope with higher import bills and tighter financing conditions.

 

Commercial Indicator	Value / Details
Total volume of global trade 2025	35 trillions of dollars
Increase compared to the previous period	2,5 trillions of dollars
Growth-driving regions	Asia Oriental y África
Logistical friction points	Estrecho de Ormuz and routes of Oriente Medio

 

New trade patterns: "Connecting economies"

 

In a context of trade decoupling across Estados Unidos y ChinaAs a result, so-called "connector economies" have emerged. These countries are helping to maintain global flows despite fragmentation, enabling some developing nations to attract investment and become more deeply integrated into the global economy. global value chainsThis reconfiguration allows certain markets to simultaneously increase their trade with both economic powers.

 

By sector, the manufacturing industry has been the main driver, with outstanding performance in:

 

• Electronics and technological products.
• Goods related to digital innovation.
• Trade in services (although with a recent slowdown).

 

Conversely, other sectors such as automotive They remain weakened due to the rise of protectionism and the most restrictive trade policies.

 

Slowdown outlook for 2026

 

Despite recent achievements, the UN Trade and Development It forecasts that global trade growth will slow during 2026. The determining factors include persistent geopolitical uncertainty, inflationary pressures, and the sustained increase in transport costs.

 

For developing economies, the combination of high energy prices and mounting debt pressure risks limiting investment and weakening demand. The international organization underscores the importance of maintaining open and predictable trading conditions to ensure that trade remains a tool for sustainable and inclusive development.

 

Key points and frequently asked questions about global trade

 

What was the total value of world trade in 2025?

Global trade in goods and services reached $35 trillion, an increase of $2,5 trillion compared to the previous year.

 

What are connecting economies?

These are countries that, faced with the decoupling between Estados Unidos y ChinaThey act as trade bridges to maintain the flow of goods and attract investment in fragmented value chains.

 

Why is a slowdown expected in 2026?

Due to geopolitical uncertainty, increased shipping costs due to conflicts on key routes such as Estrecho de Ormuz and the implementation of protectionist trade policies.