This rebound, driven mainly by a notable increase in imports from North America, is attributed to the anticipation of new tariff increases by United States.
El World merchandise trade volume expanded by 3.6% quarter-on-quarter and 5.3% year-on-year in the first three months of the year. This growth has been greater than the initial projections of the WTO, which forecast a 2.7% growth rate for 2025. However, the organization's economists warn that the pace of expansion could slow in the coming months as inventories are replenished and higher tariffs impact import demand.
The new tariffs announced by United States on April 2 These increases were widely anticipated, leading importers to bring forward their purchases to avoid higher costs. This strategy contributed significantly to the dynamism observed in the first quarter. Although the WTO's adjusted forecasts for full-year merchandise trade growth remain "basically flat" at 0.1% as of mid-June, the strong start to the year is noteworthy.
The WTO will continue to closely monitor developments in global trade, particularly in light of trade tensions and changes in tariff policies.
Regional inequality and trends by product
Growth in merchandise trade volume in the first quarter was uneven across regions. North America led the increase in imports with an impressive 13.4% quarter-on-quarter, followed by Africa (5.1%) and South and Central America and the Caribbean (3.6%). In contrast, the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) was the only region to experience a decline in imports (-0.5%).
As for exports, Middle East recorded the highest quarterly growth (6.3%), followed by Asia (5.6%) and South America (3.2%). The CIS also showed a decrease in its exports (-1.0%).
The dollar value of global merchandise trade, which increased 4% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2025, reflected this volume growth despite a broad decline in prices. By product category, office and telecommunications equipment (+16%), chemicals (+12%), and apparel (+7%) were the best performers. In contrast, automotive products (-4%), fuels and mining products (-4%), and iron and steel (-3%) recorded declines in value.
Africa stood out for the highest growth in merchandise exports In value terms, with a year-on-year increase of 9%, driven by gold, minerals, cocoa, and copper. On the import side, North America (+19%) and South America (+12%) experienced strong year-on-year increases.
Prospects for slowdown
Although the first quarter was solid, monthly data available through the second quarter of 2025 already show a slowdown in import demand. For example, imports of United States, which grew 25% in the first quarter, only increased 1% in the first two months of the second quarter. However, Chinese exports maintained a 6% year-over-year growth in both quarters, while other Asian economies, such as India, saw an acceleration in their exports.
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