Global trade remains afloat in 2025, but the shadow of tariffs looms in 2026.

 

Despite global uncertainty and rising trade tensions, growth in the world merchandise trade has shown unexpected resilience.

 

This improvement is mainly due to a strategy of anticipating imports by United States, where companies have accelerated their purchases to avoid the tariffs that went into effect this week. This phenomenon has provided a modest but crucial boost to trade prospects for the current year.

 

However, the director general of the WTO, Ngozi Okonjo-IwealaHe cautioned that this resilience could be temporary. “The full impact of the recent tariff measures is still unfolding,” he said. “The shadow of tariff uncertainty continues to weigh heavily on business confidence, investment, and supply chains.”

 

Over time, the increase in tariffs will have an impact on trade, and has caused the estimated growth rate of trade volume for next year to increase from 2,5% to 1,8%.

 

A Temporary Boost and a Latent Risk

 

The upward revision for 2025 contrasts with a more cautious outlook for 2026. As the effect of import anticipation dissipates, the full impact of tariffs is expected to be felt, reducing the trade volume growth forecast for next year from 2.5% to 1.8%.

 

Asian economies are emerging as the main drivers of growth in 2025, while North America will have a negative impact, although lower than expected thanks to the anticipation of imports in the United States. On the other hand, the contribution of Europe has gone from being moderately positive to slightly negative.

 

Director Okonjo-Iweala emphasized the importance of having so far avoided a broader cycle of reciprocal tariff retaliation. The WTO will continue to closely monitor the situation and work with its members to safeguard the stability of the global trading system.