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In April 2026, oil production in the Golfo It experienced a drastic decline of 14,4 million barrels per day due to the armed conflict in IráThis scenario has triggered a profound energy shock globally, forcing a reconfiguration of the international supply chain and driving a worrying inflationary surge in Estados Unidos.
The impact of the conflict on the global crude oil market
Disruption in Oriente Medio has generated an exceptional imbalance in commodity markets. According to estimates from Agencia Internacional de la Energía (IEA), global supply has decreased by 12 million barrels per day since the outbreak of the war, standing at 95,1 million. Although the increase in pumping in Estados Unidos, Brasil, Canadá, Kazajistá y Venezuela It has partially mitigated the blow; global inventories have plummeted to 7.900 billion barrels.
To mitigate these distortions, 146 million barrels have been mobilized from the strategic reserves coordinated by the IEALikewise, key industries such as petrochemicals and commercial aviation are facing significant cost overruns due to shortages of naphtha and ethane, as well as rising kerosene prices. The organization projects that global consumption will decrease by 2,45 million barrels per day in the second half of the year and warns that reserves could take up to three years to recover to normal levels.
The shockwave: US inflation and Fed decisions
The rise in hydrocarbon prices has hit the US economy hard. The annual inflation rate of Estados Unidos It climbed to 3,8% in April, its highest level in almost three years. According to the Departamento de TrabajoEnergy costs soared 17,9% year-on-year, with an alarming 28,4% increase in gasoline.
This dynamic has buried the expectations of Wall Street about an imminent interest rate cut. Core inflation also unexpectedly accelerated to 2,8%, leading members of the Reserva Federal to consolidate their position of maintaining "high interest rates for longer" to contain the pressure on prices.
Trump-Xi Summit: Institutionalization of the Trade Truce
Amid international volatility, the recent summit in Pekí across Donald Trump y Xi Jinping It has achieved pragmatic progress toward global trade stability. Following the tough tariffs of 2025, both powers have agreed to create new institutional management mechanisms.
- A new one was established Board of Trade to monitor the bilateral exchange of non-sensitive goods.
- In parallel, the Board of Investment to channel Chinese capital flows into US economic sectors classified as non-strategic.
- Pekí It pledged to purchase a minimum of $17.000 billion annually in agricultural products from Estados Unidos during the next three years.
- The Asian giant also announced the acquisition of 200 commercial aircraft from the American manufacturer. Boeing.
- The mandatary Xi Jinping established Taiwá like a "red line that must not be crossed", achieving a temporary freeze on the delivery of US weapons to the island in the interest of economic stability.
Other key logistics and international debt factors
At a logistical level, Emiratos Árabes Unidos It announced the construction of a new strategic oil pipeline that will connect the west and east of its territory. This project, which will be completed next year, will allow it to export up to 3,5 million barrels per day directly from the terminal of Fujairahavoiding traffic through the Estrecho de Ormuz and minimizing their vulnerability to threats from Irá.
On the other hand, in Latin America, Venezuela has taken a fundamental step after almost a decade in default, announcing a comprehensive process to restructure its massive public and private debt. Pdvsa, facilitated by licenses from the OFACAccording to reports CesceThe country has accumulated total obligations exceeding $150.000 billion, a colossal liability whose negotiability remains tied to the current sanctions framework and the will of international creditors.
| Indicator / Relevant Agreements | Key Market Figures |
|---|---|
| Drop in crude oil production in the Golfo | 14,4 million barrels per day in April |
| General inflation in Estados Unidos | 3,8% year-on-year (Highest level in 3 years) |
| Global increase in gasoline prices | 28,4% year-on-year |
| Agricultural investment committed by China | $ 17.000 million annually |
| Unpaid external debt of Venezuela | Over 150.000 million dollars |
Source: Cesce
Key points and frequently asked questions about Geopolitics and World Trade
Why has inflation skyrocketed in the US?
The main catalyst has been the drastic energy shock resulting from the conflict in IráThe cost of energy rose by 17,9%, pushing headline inflation to 3,8% in April 2026 and blocking interest rate cuts by the Reserva Federal.
What trade agreements did Washington and Beijing reach?
Donald Trump y Xi Jinping They created bilateral boards (Board of Trade y Board of Investment) to manage economic flows. Furthermore, Pekí will buy 200 planes from Boeing and $17.000 billion annually in US agricultural products.
How is the United Arab Emirates trying to avoid the crisis in Hormuz?
Through the construction of a new strategic oil pipeline that will connect to the terminal of Fujairahallowing the country to export up to 3,5 million barrels per day without transiting through the vulnerable Estrecho de Ormuz.
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