During the week of March 9-16, 2026, the conflict in Irán and the blocking of Estrecho de Ormuz They have driven up the prices of urea and sulfur, threatening global agricultural production and forcing powers such as Estados Unidos to ease energy sanctions to stabilize markets.
Fertilizer crisis and the energy factor
The fertilizer industry is facing a worrying strain because the Golfo Pérsico It accounts for nearly half of the world's exports of u y sulfurThe interruption of navigation by the Estrecho de Ormuz This has driven the price of urea above $600 per ton, an increase of more than 50%. Meanwhile, sulfur has climbed 40% to $700.
Countries like Kenia, Pakistán, Sri Lanka, Somalia y Tanzania They are the most vulnerable, since imports from the Gulf account for more than a quarter of their total supply. This shortage is compounded by the rising cost of gas natural, a critical input for the manufacture of fertilizers, just before the start of spring planting in the northern hemisphere.
| Product | Current Price (Per Ton) | Percentage increase |
|---|---|---|
| Urea | > $600 | > 50% |
| Sulfur | ~ $ 700 | > 40% |
Latin America: Reforms in Cuba and Venezuela
En CubaThe Government has taken a historic step by allowing investment in diaspora and exile in small businesses and infrastructure projects. This economic shift occurs under a situation of "energy strangulation" and suggests contacts with the Administración TrumpHowever, doubts remain about real legal guarantees for investors.
On the other hand, Venezuela deepens its openness to foreign capital with a new mining law which extends concessions to 30 years. Following the visit of the Secretary of the Interior of EE.UU., Doug Burgum, Washington has authorized transactions with Minerven and has eased import restrictions on Venezuelan petrochemical products to relieve pressure on the US agricultural sector.
Asia: Chinese autonomy and tensions in India
La Asamblea Popular Nacional de China has formally approved the 15th Five-Year Plan (2026-2030)The document prioritizes the technological self-sufficiency and the resilience of supply chains. A relevant new development is the concept of "institutional openness", which seeks to align internal regulations with international standards in intellectual property and financial services.
En IndiaThe Government has imposed a 80% gas rationing for large industrial consumers due to the Gulf blockade. Although Indian diplomacy secured the exceptional passage of two LNG tankers after negotiating with Irán As of March 15, the situation in the industry remains critical.
| Country | Key Milestone | Economic impact |
|---|---|---|
| China | XV Five-Year Plan | Focus on high-tech manufacturing |
| India | Energy rationing | 80% restriction on the industry |
| Rusia | Exemption from sanctions (Waiver) | Sale of 100 million barrels of crude oil |
US tariff rearmament
Following an adverse ruling by Tribunal Supremo, the Casa Blanca has launched massive investigations under the Section 301This process is divided into two fronts: one against 16 major economies (including the Unión Europea y México) for excess manufacturing capacity, and another against 60 countries for failing to combat forced labor. The administration's objective of Donald Trump It is about regaining negotiating power against Pekín.
Source: Cesce
Key points and frequently asked questions about Country Risk
Why has the price of fertilizers risen so much?
Due to the conflict in Irán and the closing of the Estrecho de Ormuz, an area that produces half of the world's urea and sulfur, coupled with the rise in the price of the gas needed for its manufacture.
What does the "waiver" granted by the US to Russia consist of?
It is a temporary 30-day exemption that allows the sale of Russian crude already loaded before March 12, in order to inject 100 million barrels into the market and curb the rise in the price of oil.
What does China's 15th Five-Year Plan mean for foreign companies?
It introduces "institutional opening," which promises to harmonize Chinese regulations with international practices in areas such as public procurement and intellectual property protection.
Any questions about this news?
Talk to Coexia, the AI of the foreign trade
