One month after the start of the Israeli-American offensive against Irán, disruptions in the supply of raw materials through the estrecho de Ormuz They continue to fuel extreme volatility in international markets. According to experts from CofaceThis situation is causing a "domino effect" that is driving up the price of key inputs such as oil, gas, fertilizers and aluminum, severely impacting industries such as aviation, mining and manufacturing.
Uneven impact on the energy market
The escalating conflict has severely impacted energy prices, although the impact varies significantly by region. While in Estados Unidos Gasoline prices have reached record highs of $3,96 per gallon, in Europa natural gas (index) TTFIt has skyrocketed by 85% in just one month. Meanwhile, in AsiaThe price of diesel has almost tripled since the start of hostilities.
"The current escalation in the Middle East is severely impacting commodity markets. Whether or not the conflict reaches a stalemate will determine the extent of the current impact on the downstream part of the value chain.", points Simon Lacoume, sectoral economist of CofaceThe recent attacks on the gas complex of Ras Laffan, Catar, have exacerbated this upward trend.
| Raw Materials / Index | Price / Value (March 2026) | Monthly Variation (MoM) |
|---|---|---|
| Crudo Brent (USD/brl) | 100,3 | + 40,9 % |
| Crudo DME Omán (USD/brl) | > 160 | Significant increase |
| Gas Natural TTF (EUR/MWh) | 56,7 | + 87,8 % |
| Petrol EE.UU. (USD/gallon) | 3,96 | + 35 % |
| Diesel oil Singapur (USD/brl) | 256 | Almost three times as much |
| Aluminum (USD/t) | 3.225,5 | +3,7% (+11,5% month-on-month) |
Fertilizers and petrochemicals: the risk of industrial contagion
The countries of Golfo (Arabia Saudí, Emiratos Árabes Unidos, Omán, Baréin, Kuwait y CatarThey hold a dominant position in the fertilizer market, accounting for 36% of the world's urea volume. Since natural gas represents up to 80% of the production costs of nitrogen fertilizers, the price of granulated urea has already risen by 37%, reaching $665 per ton.
Likewise, the petrochemical industry, essential for the manufacture of plastics, is facing a supply crisis. Gasoline has surpassed $1.000 in SingapurThis represents an increase of over 60%. This pressure is directly transferred to polymers (PVC, polyethylene, polypropylene) and sulfur, the latter being vital for copper and nickel mining in countries such as Chile and República Democrática del Congo.
Aluminum in critical condition
Aluminum is positioned as the metal with the highest operational risk. The blockage of estrecho de Ormuz It prevents countries in the region—responsible for 8% of global production—from exporting the metal and importing bauxite and alumina. The company Aluminum Bahrain (Alba) has already announced the suspension of 19% of its production, while in Mozambique, the plant of Mosal has halted operations due to unsustainable energy costs.
- Exports of Oriente Medio through Hormuz they represent 33,1% of the world's crude oil.
- 31% of maritime methanol flows pass through this strategic point.
- 19,3% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) depends on this shipping route.
Key points and frequently asked questions about the commodities crisis
Why does the price of oil vary so much between regions?
The difference is due to the proximity and dependence of estrecho de OrmuzWhile crude oil DME de Omán It exceeds $160 due to the immediate logistical risk, the WTI The US dollar remains close to $100 as it is less exposed to disruptions in that area.
How does this crisis affect the food industry?
The rise in natural gas prices automatically increases the price of nitrogen fertilizers. Although initially it affects cereal producers in Estados UnidosA continuation of the conflict would expose major agricultural exporters such as Brasil and India.
Which industrial sectors are at greatest risk of paralysis?
Aluminum smelting and basic metal mining are the most vulnerable due to their high dependence on energy and chemical inputs such as sulfur, whose prices and logistics are severely compromised by the conflict.
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