The escalation of the conflict in the region has put the spotlight on the vulnerability of this route, especially for China, whose dependence is notable. Near the 53% of its crude oil imports, equivalent to about 4,2 million barrels per day, transit through Hormuz. This situation positions the Asian economy as one of the most exposed to any disruption in the Strait, despite efforts by the United States and Europe to reduce their direct dependence on the area. In contrast, China has strengthened its ties with Qatar and Iran to secure its energy supply.
The recent escalation of hostilities, including cross-attacks between Israel and Iran, has led Iran to openly consider the possibility of a temporary control of the strait as a pressure measure. While a total blockade is perceived as a last resort, given that it would also affect Iranian exports, the mere threat has set off alarm bells in the energy markets, projecting a possible Oil prices soar to $150 per barrel in case of closure.
Experts and analysts agree that a blockade or even targeted attacks on Hormuz would have serious repercussions on the global market, particularly impacting China and Europe, which are already exploring alternatives such as Qatari gas to mitigate risks. However, the US military presence in the region, with the 5th Fleet deployed in Bahrain, acts as a key deterrent against a complete closure of the strait.
The situation has been exacerbated by recent incidents in the Strait, such as the collision and fire of oil tankers and boardings by Iranian vessels, which have raised the alert level. Added to this are failures in the navigation systems of hundreds of ships, adding an additional risk to the transit of hydrocarbons through this crucial waterway.
In this complex scenario, the experts' statements underline the seriousness of the situation. The financial analyst Pablo Fernández He stated emphatically that a closure of the strait "is in no one's best interest," and that both the United States and China "will exert pressure" to prevent such a scenario, which could further destabilize global energy markets. Meanwhile, Anas Alhajji, managing partner of Energy Outlook Advisors, emphasized that "Their friends will suffer more than their enemies... So it's very difficult to see that happening," referring to an Iranian blockade, given that Iran itself relies on the strait for its oil exports and the entry of essential goods.
These tensions are already having a palpable effect, with experts warning that "Only tensions can drive gas prices to €50," and a relevant analysis highlighting the vulnerability of the supply by noting that "Gulf oil is geographically concentrated and trapped in a single point." The Strait of Hormuz thus remains a vital hub for global energy supply, under the scrutiny of the international community amidst a major geopolitical crisis.
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