The return of El Niño in 2026: what impact will it have on supply chains and Spanish foreign trade

Royalty-free stock photograph created by Xavier Miranda and Unsplash.

Global Climate Alert

The World Meteorological Organization has raised the probability of the El Niño climate phenomenon to 80% for August 2026. This event threatens to generate significant disruption in global supply chains, commodity prices and, consequently, in the international business of Spanish companies.

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La Organización Meteorológica Mundial (WMO) has raised to 80% the probability that the climatic phenomenon of El Niño This event, which alters global weather patterns, threatens to cause significant disruption to supply chains, commodity prices, and consequently, to the foreign trade of Spanish companies.

Although it is often perceived as a distant meteorological phenomenon, its economic consequences are direct and have a global reach, affecting everything from maritime logistics to the availability of key components for industry.

What is El Niño and why is it relevant to international business?

El Niño It is a natural climate pattern characterized by the warming of surface waters in the equatorial Pacific Ocean. This temperature change causes a Domino effect in the climate of the entire planet, triggering severe droughts in some regions such as the Sudeste Asiático o Australiaand floods and torrential rains in others, such as certain areas of América Latina.

For an executive of a Spanish company, understanding this phenomenon is crucial, as it translates directly into:

• Supply risk: Droughts can ruin crops (coffee, cocoa, sugar, palm oil), affecting the Spanish agri-food industry.
• Price volatility: The scarcity of raw materials causes a price increase that impacts production costs.
• Logistics disruption: Extreme weather events can close ports, damage infrastructure, and disrupt shipping and air transport routes.

Direct impact on supply chains and logistics

One of the most immediate effects of the return of El Niño will be the stress on the supply chainsAlready strained by the geopolitical situation, Spanish companies with suppliers or markets in the most affected regions should prepare for potential delays and additional costs.

A paradigmatic case is the Canal de Panamá, vital for trade between Asia and the east coast of EEUU y Europa. El Niño It tends to cause droughts in the region, reducing water levels in the lakes that feed the canal. This forces authorities to restrict vessel draft and the number of daily transits, creating bottlenecks and increased freight costs that directly impact Spanish importers and exporters.

Volatility in commodity prices: a challenge for Spanish industry

Spanish industry, especially the agri-food and manufacturing sectors, is highly dependent on imported raw materials. The phenomenon of El Niño It is a factor of high volatility in the markets of commodities.

The following table presents the potential risks for key sectors in España:

Sector Affected in Spain	Potential Risk from El Niño	Implications for Spanish Companies
Agrifood	Reduction in coffee, cocoa, sugar and cereal harvests in Latin America and Asia.	Increased import costs, need to find alternative suppliers.
Energy	Lower hydroelectric generation in dependent regions; higher demand for gas for air conditioning.	Upward pressure on global energy prices.
Fishing	Changes in ocean currents that affect fishing grounds (e.g., anchovy in Peru).	Impact on the canning and fishmeal industry.
Insurance	Increased accident rates due to extreme weather events in areas of operation or transport.	Increased costs of cargo transport insurance and export credit premiums.

Key points and frequently asked questions about El Niño and foreign trade

How can a Spanish exporting company prepare for El Niño?

The key is the proactive risk managementForeign trade experts consulted by Empresa Exterior They advise diversifying the supplier portfolio geographically to avoid dependence on a single vulnerable region, reviewing supply contracts to include force majeure clauses for weather events, and, fundamentally, adequately insuring cargo against possible delays or damage.

Which sectors in Spain will be most affected?

Addition food industry due to its dependence on raw materials, the textile industry which sources its cotton from drought-prone regions and the technology sector Companies that rely on minerals from flood-prone areas (affecting mining) are particularly vulnerable. Any business with a globally extended supply chain will feel the impact on costs and timelines.

Are transport and credit insurance costs expected to increase?

Yes, it is a highly probable consequence. Insurers, including CesceInsurance companies will adjust their premiums based on perceived risk. An increased likelihood of extreme weather events translates into a greater risk of losses for goods in transit and for the financial stability of buyers in affected countries. This could increase the cost of both transport insurance and other related services. export credit insurance.