The return of global imbalances: how the new tariff and subsidy war redefines foreign trade for Spain

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Global Situation Analysis

A new analysis by the Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR) warns of a resurgence of trade imbalances, driven by aggressive industrial policies and tariffs from major powers such as the US and China. This scenario of neo-protectionism redefines the rules of the game for Spanish exporters, who face both strategic risks and opportunities.

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The global trade landscape is being reshaped at breakneck speed. A recent analysis by the prestigious Center for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), dated May 26, 2026, warns about the "return of global imbalances"a phenomenon driven by a new era of industrial policies and tariffs which threatens to fragment the global economy. This new paradigm, led by Estados Unidos y ChinaThis forces Spanish exporting companies to immediately recalibrate their internationalization strategies.

Neoprotectionism: Beyond Tariffs

Unlike past trade wars, the current scenario is more complex. It's not simply about imposing tariffs, a tool characteristic of the president's administration. Donald Trump en EEUUThe new approach focuses on the active industrial policywhere governments intervene directly to promote strategic sectors through massive subsidies, local content requirements, and regulatory barriers.

Foreign trade experts consulted by Foreign Company They point out that this trend has two clear epicenters: China, with its long-term plans to master key technologies, and Estados Unidoswith regulations such as the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), which incentivize local production in green and technological sectors. Unión Europeaand by extension EspañaIt finds itself at a crossroads, forced to react to protect its industrial base.

The Direct Impact on Spanish Companies

This resurgence of trade imbalances, where some countries accumulate enormous surpluses and others deficits, generates volatility that directly affects Spanish companies. The main vectors of impact are:

• Tariff Risk: Key Spanish sectors such as agri-food, automotive, and renewable energy may be affected by new discretionary tariffs, especially in the US market.
• Unfair Competition: The massive subsidies of China This can lead to a flood of low-cost products in third-party markets, displacing Spanish exports.
• Supply Chain Fragmentation: The pressure for the nearshoring (nearby relocation) and the friend shoring (trade with allies) may exclude Spanish suppliers if they do not adapt to the new geopolitical blocs.
• Regulatory Uncertainty: The proliferation of technical and sustainability regulations, such as the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), adds a layer of administrative complexity and costs for exporters.

The following table summarizes the key policies and their potential impact on companies headquartered in España:

Region/Block	Industrial Policy Instruments	Potential Impact for Spanish Companies
Estados Unidos	Selective tariffs, Inflation Reduction Act (IRA), local content requirements.	Risks for exports (agriculture, automotive). Opportunities in friend shoring for strategic sectors.
China	Massive subsidies to state-owned enterprises, control of exports of critical raw materials.	Increased price competition in global markets. Risk in the component supply chain.
Unión Europea	CBAM mechanism, NextGeneration EU funds, Critical Raw Materials Act.	Financing opportunities for sustainable and industrial projects. Increased regulatory and compliance burden.

Strategic Recommendations for the Exporter

Given this scenario, "inaction is not an option," warn the analysts consulted by this publication. Spanish companies must adopt a proactive approach. The key recommendations focus on the market diversification To mitigate dependence on a single client or region, investment in technology and added value to compete beyond price, and a deep understanding of the new international regulations to turn sustainability demands into a competitive advantage.

The analysis of CEPR It emphasizes that, while the environment is more hostile, niches are also emerging. The reconfiguration of global value chains opens the door for European suppliers, including Spanish ones, to gain market share in América del Norte and within itself Unión Europeapositioning themselves as reliable and high-quality alternatives to Asian production.

Key points and frequently asked questions about the new business landscape

How do these new tariffs directly affect my exports to the US?

The main risk lies in discretion. The administration Trump It can impose tariffs on specific sectors with little notice, affecting the profitability of deals already closed. It is crucial to constantly monitor the trade policy of Washington and consider price revision clauses in international contracts. This particularly affects agri-food products, automotive components, and steel.

What exactly is "industrial policy" and why is it more dangerous than classic protectionism?

Unlike traditional protectionism based on tariffs (a border tax), modern industrial policy uses more subtle tools that are harder to combat under WTO rules. It includes direct subsidies to companies, tax breaks, targeted government procurement, and regulatory barriers that favor domestic production. Its aim is not only to protect a market but to create national champions capable of dominating the global market, generating structurally unequal competition.

What specific opportunities might arise for Spanish companies in this context?

The main opportunity lies in the friend shoring and the near shoring. Companies of EEUU and north of Europa They seek to diversify their supply chains outside of China to reduce geopolitical risk. Spanish suppliers, being within the framework of the UE and being considered reliable partners, they can position themselves as a strategic alternative, especially in medium and high technology sectors, industrial components and renewable energies.