Spain and Latin America resist the global slowdown, while geopolitics and governance focus the attention of analysts

Solunion Economic Forum 2024

Spain shows economic resilience in the face of the European slowdown, while Latin America registers modest but cyclically positive growth, with little nominal volatility and considerable financial flows.

---

 

The Solunion 2024 Economic Forum, held in Madrid on May 22, brought together experts to analyze the international economic context and the geopolitical and economic perspectives for the second half of the year. In an environment marked by uncertainty, Spain and Latin America They stand as examples of resilience, while geopolitics and governance are positioned as the main challenges for companies in the new global cycle.

 

The economists Ludovic Subran, Chief Economist at Allianz, and Gonzalo de Cadenas-Santiago, Deputy General Director of MAPFRE Economics, highlighted the positive evolution of Spain compared to other countries in the European Union. The use of the Next Generation EU funds, the health of the financial system and a favorable sector mix, especially in the field of renewable energy, machinery and automobiles, are some of the factors that sustain the country's growth.

 

Despite the slowdown affecting other European countries, Spain maintains a growth forecast close to 2%, with controlled inflation around 3%. The financial position of Spanish companies is solid and, for now, no significant increase in the risk of non-payment or late payment has been observed.

 

Geopolitical conflicts, the elections in the United States and the evolution of interest rates are the factors that analysts focus on most to understand how the global economy will behave in 2024.

 

Latin America: Modest but sustained growth

Emerging markets, particularly Latin America, have shown remarkable resilience in recent years. Despite the doubts that arose in 2020, the region has achieved modest but cyclically positive growth, characterized by low nominal and exchange rate volatility, along with considerable financial flows. The main challenge for Latin America lies in increasing productivity and in the search for sustained long-term growth, especially in those countries facing debt challenges.

 

Geopolitics and governance: Uncertainty on the global board

Geopolitics and governance are emerging as the main focuses of attention for analysts. International conflicts with no apparent short-term resolution, along with the presidential elections in United States, generate uncertainty about the evolution of the global economy and add instability to the geopolitical and commercial panorama.

 

Normalization of monetary policy and fight against climate change

Experts agree on the need to move towards the normalization of monetary policy to control inflation and its impact on the most vulnerable companies and families. The ECB is expected to begin lowering rates in June, followed by the Federal Reserve in September.

 

The fight against climate change is also among the main challenges of this year. The rise of climate change denial movements slows progress towards a greener economy, requiring a joint effort to urgently address this problem.