The new president's goal is to act quickly and decisively in the migration, trade and regulatory sphere to give an image of effectiveness and radical change to his voters. Trump wants to make a declaration of national emergency due to the entry of irregular immigrants through the southern border, free up federal resources to stop immigrants crossing from Mexico, limiting their ability to apply for asylum and launching the “largest deportation effort in the history of United States”, in his own words. The gradual introduction of tariffs in certain sectors ranging from energy to defence is also expected, and some members of his advisory team even advocate a high tariff on all US imports from day one.
To this end, the use of the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, which would give him the power to impose whatever tariffs the president wants. In the regulatory field, measures are expected to drastically reduce bureaucracy and restrictions approved by the Biden administration on energy production. In addition, the resumption of licensing for export terminals is expected. LNG and the relaxation of the "protected lands" directive, which will mean more permits for drilling in Alaska. foreign policy, Trump's main concern in the first days of his second term will focus on Middle East.
His team will have to manage the implementation of the ceasefire agreement reached between Israel and Hamas to end the war in Gaza and relations with the transitional government in Syria, run by HTS, a former subsidiary of Al Qaeda. It could also toughen sanctions against Iran to exert "maximum pressure" on the regime Tehran. During the election campaign, Trump had pledged to end the clashes between Russia and Ukraine on his first day in office. But more recently he has said he hopes to resolve it within the first six months. However, he is unlikely to approve another package of military aid to Ukraine, something that will obviously be reflected in the evolution of the conflict.
Joe Biden's legacy
Biden says goodbye to the presidency of the United States after fifty years of political career. The 82-year-old Democratic leader leaves office with approval levels of his management of around 37%, a very low percentage. However, his low popularity contrasts with the economic situation in which he leaves the country. Family wealth has grown by 28% to reach historic highs, unemployment is at historic lows and inflation, although it has not returned to the Fed's target of 2%, has experienced a sharp decline since the crisis unleashed by the war in Ukraine. Throughout his mandate, economic policy has moved away from the free market orthodoxy that has traditionally characterized the United States, towards a much more relevant role for the State.
The "Bidenomics”He has developed a series of powerful industrial development plans: the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act ($1,2 trillion); the CHIPS and Science Act ($280.000 billion) aimed at reducing the country's dependence on semiconductor manufacturing; and the Inflation Reduction Act, a $369.000 billion package aimed at reducing greenhouse emissions from the largest economy on the planet.
The obvious economic successes contrast with the perception of voters, of whom only 25% considered that the American economy was in a “good” or “excellent” situation, according to a recent poll. The immigration issue has penalized his popularity a lot; the crisis on the border with Mexico, where there have been record numbers of irregular entries, has been particularly problematic for his Administration. His legacy in foreign policy is full of lights and shadows. Without a doubt, his greatest failure was the chaotic withdrawal of American troops from Afghanistan in 2021 which dealt a significant blow to his image. As for the relationship with China, the outgoing president has hardened his stance, to try to ensure American technological and commercial supremacy, with questionable success. While his support for the NATO Ukraine has not been enough to curb Russia's expansionist aspirations.
He also leaves office with a tenuous truce in the Gaza war, after months of futile diplomatic efforts. Perhaps his greatest achievement was preserving America's democratic institutions - remember the assault on the Capitol - even though it did not do him much good.
Source: CESCE
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