Eurizon forecasts a second half of 2026 marked by technological resilience and the return of fixed income

Economic Outlook H2 2026

Asset manager Eurizon anticipates sustained global growth in the second half of 2026, driven by the investment cycle in technology and AI. The firm highlights the mitigation of inflation due to falling oil prices and sees opportunities in both fixed income and equities.

The asset manager Eurizon Asset Management has presented in Madrid Their analysis for the second half of 2026, a period that will be defined by the resilience of the global economy, central bank decisions, and, above all, the strength of the technology investment cycle, maintains a baseline scenario of continued economic expansion.

In its latest report, Eurizon It highlights that growth in corporate profits and a more favorable outlook for fixed income will support financial markets, in a context of stabilizing inflation expectations.

A resilient macroeconomic context thanks to technology

According to the asset manager, one of the key factors that has helped to ease price pressures has been the recent drop in oil prices. However, caution remains due to the uncertainty surrounding the reopening of the Strait of Hormuzwhich remains a factor to monitor for global supply chains. At the same time, the investment cycle in areas such as Artificial Intelligence It is consolidating its position as the main driver of economic activity, especially in Estados Unidos, which shows greater strength compared to the economy of Europa.

In this context, Andrea Conti, Head of the Macroeconomic Research Team and Product Specialist of EurizonHe noted that "the investment supercycle helped the global economy withstand three consecutive months with oil prices above $100. Looking ahead, we believe the investment cycle remains a strong support for the economy." Conti He adds that, although the situation in the Estrecho de Ormuz The situation has not fully normalized, and "a further rise in oil prices seems unlikely, as oil flows are finding alternative routes." His conclusion is clear: "We can consider the inflationary peak to be a thing of the past. Central banks have adopted an aggressive stance, but it is unlikely to escalate further in the future. All of this suggests that the global economic cycle may be prolonged this year and next, with positive implications for risk assets."

Fixed income regains its appeal for investors

Eurizon maintains a positive outlook on the fixed rentwhich has regained prominence in investment portfolios. The firm believes that current yield levels continue to offer real returns above inflation. Furthermore, corporate credit and emerging market debt spreads represent an additional source of value and potential returns. According to the asset manager, markets have already largely priced in the expected trajectory of central bank interest rates.

The shares, driven by the profits of the technology sector

The manager's view on the variable income It is also constructive, supported by the remarkable strength expected in corporate earnings. The projections of Eurizon They point to a 28% growth in global profits in 2026, led mainly by the technology and artificial intelligence sector.

By geography, the benefits of the index are expected to vary. S&P 500 en Estados Unidos increase by 24%, while for companies in Euro Stoxx An increase of around 15% is projected, a figure that will also be boosted by the improvement in conditions in European energy markets.

Eurizon Capital SGR, leading entity of the Group Intesa Sanpaolo in asset management, it operates in Europa through branches in Luxemburgo, Francia, Alemania, España y SuizaIts presence extends to Europa del Este (Eurizon Asset Management Slovakia, Hungary y Croatia) and Asia (Eurizon Capital Asia Limited en Hong Kong y Penghua Fund Management en China), operating in a total of 27 countries.

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