This is what he warns about Diego Mateos, CEO GESE, who points out that Iran's intervention in the regional conflict and the reduction of Russian gas exports are key factors that threaten to destabilize supply and drive up gas prices.
“Iran’s involvement in the conflict could have serious consequences for the global gas supply, especially LNG,” Mateos stated. He also emphasized the importance of Strait of Hormuz, through which 25% of the world's LNG transits, as a critical point for the gas exports, especially since Catar, one of the world's largest exporters.
Added to Iran's already limited gas production, which is suffering from the impact of international sanctions, is the growing competition for LNG in global markets, which will put pressure on prices in Europe and Asia. The Europe's dependence on LNG has increased significantly since the reduction of Russian gas exports following the invasion of Ukraine in 2022. "Any interruption in supply from Near East, combined with increasing competition with Asia"This could cause a considerable increase in gas prices, especially in winter," the expert warned.
Diego Mateos warns of the challenges Europe faces during winter, when demand for heating and electricity peaks
Another crucial factor is the decision not to renew the permits for the Ukrainian gas pipeline, one of the main routes for Russian gas to Europe. This will force European countries to rely even more on imported LNG, especially from United States"This decision will mean that Europe will pay more for gas due to the higher transportation and storage costs of LNG compared to pipeline gas," Mateos explained.
Despite the crisis, Mateos stresses that this scenario could to drive Europe to accelerate its transition towards cleaner and renewable energy sources"This energy crisis could be the catalyst Europe needs to strengthen its energy security and accelerate the development of renewable infrastructure," he concluded.
He also highlighted the emerging role of the United States as the world's largest exporter of LNG, surpassing Qatar and Australia Following the 2022 energy crisis, "US LNG has become a tool of geopolitical influence, strengthening the transatlantic relationship and enabling..." Washington "to exert pressure on their rivals," Mateos noted.
The future of the gas market will remain uncertain and volatile, driven by global demand and geopolitical tensions. Europe will need to be prepared to face an increasingly unpredictable energy environment, the expert concluded.
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