CESCE, Country Risk
The IMF published its World Economic Outlook Report last week in which it completely changes the economic scenario outlined in the January edition as a result of the outbreak and expansion of the Covid-19 virus.
![[Img # 35985]](https://empresaexterior.com/upload/images/04_2020/2850_fmi.jpg)
Thus, the organization now foresees a contraction of the world economy of up to -3% in 2020, much more pronounced than in the 2008-2009 recession, to subsequently rebound to 5,8% in 2021. All this assuming a gradual de-escalation of confinement measures for the second half of 2020 , as contemplated in its central scenario.
The agency warns of the enormous uncertainty surrounding economic forecasts since it is extremely difficult to predict the course of the pandemic, the intensity and effectiveness of confinement measures or the behavior of consumers when normality returns. In the case of advanced economies, the IMF estimates a recession of 6,1% in 2020 with growth recovering to 4,5% in 2021.
La European Union It is, without a doubt, the most affected region with an economic collapse of 7,5%, compared to the 1,2% growth it registered in 2019. emerging economies They will also feel the impact of the crisis but in this case it will be more moderate. A recession of 1% is estimated for this year as a result of the collapse of large emerging economies such as Russia (-5,5%), Brazil (-5,3%) or Mexico (-6,6%).
The Asian region is the only one that maintains positive GDP growth figures in 2020, equivalent to 1%. Thus, “The Great Lockdown”, as the IMF titled the report, anticipates an unprecedented contraction of the world economy and warns that, despite the recovery expected in 2021, we will have to wait some time for global GDP to return to pre-health crisis levels. .
Source: CESCE
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