Spain – Greece
The revised data show that real GDP in Q4 contracted by -1,2% quarter-on-quarter (the initial estimate was -0,4%).
As a result, the country did not escape recession in 2016 (-0,1%) as initially expected (+0,3%). Private consumption grew by 1,4% in 2016, the fastest pace since 2008, and investment managed to stabilize after eight years of contraction. However, public consumption fell significantly back into negative territory (-2,1%). Imports remained relatively resilient (+0,5%) despite capital controls, while exports declined by 1,5%. Overall, real GDP remains 26% below its 2008 peak. In nominal terms, GDP grew by 0,1%, returning to positive territory after seven consecutive years of decline. Looking ahead, we expect prices to rebound, primarily driven by higher commodity prices, while a weaker euro should boost Greek exports. We expect GDP growth to reach +1,7% in 2017, assuming that a compromise between the Greek government and international institutions is possible (see also WERO of 22 February 2017).
Source: Solunion
Weekly Export Risk Outlook – Euler hermes
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