The comments of Lagarde They go beyond the fiscal agenda and encompass finance, energy and digital infrastructure.
The tone of his speech suggests that Europe will not back down in the face of retaliatory measures on tariffs and implies the need to stand firm in the face of possible difficult times. It is expected that Germany and Italy, both countries with a strong dependence on the automobile exports, are among the most affected. Rising production costs and disruptions to the supply chains will act as a hindrance to economic activity. The European steel and aluminum sectors could also be affected.
An tariff trade war This would weaken growth, increase unemployment, and ultimately be disinflationary or even deflationary. It's no surprise, therefore, that the bond market has reacted by pricing in further rate cuts, while longer-dated yields and breakeven inflation rates have fallen. Without a U-turn by Trump, downward pressure on yields will persist.
Daniel Loughney,
Head of Fixed Income all with MIFL (Mediolaum International Funds)
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