Limited impact on Spain from the dockworkers' strike in the United States: a matter of inventories and profit margins

A priori, the first place where the effects of a strike of this nature would be felt is in the country itself, since the supply chains of imported products could be interrupted. United States, generating a certain shortage and, associated with this, inflationary pressures (just when the cycle of interest rate cuts by the monetary authorities has begun). On the other hand, the exit of the US exports, which would affect the supply chains of the countries receiving those exports.

In this sense, and pending a more in-depth analysis, the location of the main ports where the strike occurs (in the gulf of Mexico) is expected to have a greater impact in the area of Central America, Caribbean and South America. Trade flows from these ports to Europe are, in principle, smaller in scale, which would limit the potential impact on the EU and Spain.

On the other hand, it should be noted that, after the supply problems caused by the pandemic, many companies adapted their business model to one with higher level of inventories in the face of a somewhat more hostile environment in terms of fragmentation and deglobalization, compared to the one in which they were operating previously. Added to this is the positive performance of business margins on a global scale, especially among industrial companies, which are the most sensitive to an interruption in the supply chain. These two factors allowed companies to absorb part of the increase in costs that had been occurring since the outbreak of the conflict in the Red Sea, which, as has been proven, has had a contained impact on inflation.

It is very likely that both elements will continue to be in force today (the accumulation of inventories, most certainly, since it is a change of strategy that has been established in companies at a global level, and the level of business margins is also likely to be in force according to the behavior of the world stock markets), which would allow to mitigate, at least in the first instance, the harmful effects that this dockers' strike may have both in the United States and in the global supply chains. This would make it possible to gain some time so that the parties involved in the conflict can reach an agreement before its effects are transferred to the inflation (In this sense, the imminence of the elections in the USA will foreseeably contribute to trying to resolve a strike situation that does not benefit the political parties in contention).

Raul Minguez

Director of the Chamber of Spain's research service