India/Pakistan: Attack in Kashmir Raises Risk of Armed Conflict

A group of gunmen ambushed tourists walking through a meadow, opening fire at close range. The attack left at least 26 people dead and more than a dozen wounded, most of them Indian nationals. Indian authorities described the incident as the worst attack against civilians in the region in years. Resistance Front (TRF), considered a banned group and linked to the Pakistani organization Lashkar-e-Taiba, took responsibility.

The day after the attack, the Indian government's Security Committee announced several measures against Pakistan. Suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, which endangers the water supply in much of northern Pakistan, stating that it would remain on hold until Islamabad renounces its support for the cross-border terrorism (Islamabad denies offering such support); closed the main border crossing with Pakistan; canceled visas for Pakistani nationals under a regional visa waiver scheme; asked military advisers to the Pakistani High Commission in Delhi to leave and notified the Indian High Commission in Islamabad of their withdrawal.

Following a meeting of its National Security Committee, Pakistan, which strongly rejected India's accusations, denounced that the Water Treaty cannot be unilaterally suspended and announced several countermeasures. These broadly mirror India's measures, but also include other actions, such as the closure of Pakistani airspace to Indian-owned or operated airlines.

These serious tensions come at a delicate time in the region amid the fragile balance that both Pakistan and India maintain in their diplomatic relations with the two superpowers. China and the USA, with Pakistan leaning more towards the latter in recent times Pekin and India to WashingtonIn the coming weeks, domestic pressure is likely to lead India to carry out cross-border attacks on limited targets. Given that Pakistan would almost certainly retaliate, we believe the risk of a full-blown military confrontation has increased substantially.

Source: CESCE