In the latest edition of the publication “Commodity Market Outlook", he World Bank highlights the significant fluctuations since 2020, well above the variations recorded at least since 1970. For the next two years, the institution forecasts a decline in the price of raw materials at the aggregate level.
Specifically, it estimates a fall of 12% in 2025 and 6% in 2026. Particularly noteworthy is the fall in the price of oil and metals, as a result of the slowdown in the World economy and the good performance of the offer.
It also forecasts a slight decline in agricultural goods, around 1% in 2025 and 3% in 2026. Therefore, an increase in prices is only expected in exceptional cases, such as precious metals, due to increased demand for safe-haven assets. Thus, it is estimated that both gold and silver could reach new all-time highs in the coming months. In any case, the World Bank It highlights that the decline in the price of most raw materials could mitigate, at least in part, the expected impact of increased tariffs on inflationary pressures.
Source: CESCE
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