Spain – Italy
Real GDP growth slowed slightly in Q4 to +0,2% quarter-on-quarter, in line with our forecast, but lower than the consensus expectation of +0,3%.
Preliminary estimates indicate that domestic demand continued to drive growth, while the contribution of foreign trade remained negative for the second consecutive quarter. Annual GDP growth in 2016 was +1%, following +0,6% in 2015. While this has improved, it is only slightly above half the Eurozone average (+1,7%) and, more importantly, the second slowest performance in the region after Greece. Early 2017 saw relative stability. The Manufacturing PMI remained steady at 53,0 in January (53,2 in December). The positive news came from increased overseas orders and the strongest job creation figures in nine months, as companies look to expand their production capacity. The Services PMI also remained steady at 52,4 in January (52,3 in December). Consumer confidence deteriorated slightly to 108,8 from 111,1 in December, while most households are not considering increasing spending on durable goods. Inflation rose again, driven by base effects from higher oil prices, which increased from 0,5% year-on-year in December to 0,7% in January.
Source: Solunion
Weekly Export Risk Outlook – Euler hermes
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