Spain – Japan
Real GDP growth slowed to +0,2% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 2016 (from +0,3% quarter-on-quarter in Q3) according to preliminary estimates, bringing annual growth in 2016 to +1%, with balanced contributions from both domestic and external demand (+0,5 pp each).
While growth at the beginning of the year was primarily driven by private consumption, the recovery in exports, which in turn fueled increased investment, became the engine of the second half of the year. A weaker yen and a gradual increase in global demand were the main drivers of this shift. Looking ahead, leading indicators such as the manufacturing PMI point to stronger growth in the near term. Favorable macroeconomic policies, a weaker yen, and continued moderate growth in global demand should boost both trade and investment, while accelerating inflation could dampen private consumption. Against this backdrop, Euler Hermes forecasts GDP growth to rise to +1,1% in 2017.
Source: Solunion
Weekly Export Risk Outlook – Euler hermes
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