The Trump Administration opens the door to selling F-35 fighter jets to Türkiye and redraws the strategic balance in NATO

Royalty-free stock photograph created by Terence Burke and Unsplash.

Defense and Global Geopolitics

US President Donald Trump has announced that his administration will consider selling F-35 fighter jets to Turkey, reversing Ankara's exclusion from the program. The decision aims to realign a key strategic partner, but it has significant industrial and security repercussions for European allies, with a direct impact on Spain's interests in the Mediterranean.

The foreign policy of Estados Unidos under the presidency of Donald Trump has executed a new strategic shift that could significantly alter the balance of power on the southern flank of the OTANIn a statement issued on July 7, 2026, the US president confirmed that Washington is willing to "consider" the reinstatement of Turquía to the fifth-generation fighter program F-35 Lightning IIThis move represents a drastic change from the policy of the previous administration, which expelled Ankara of the consortium in 2019 following the acquisition of the Russian air defense system S-400.

A pragmatic shift in transatlantic relations

The decision of the Casa Blanca This falls within a predominantly transactional diplomatic approach, aimed at regaining influence over a partner of critical geostrategic importance. The exclusion of Turquía The program not only generated a profound crisis within the Atlantic Alliance, but also spurred Ankara to explore alternative alliances and develop its own defense industry with greater autonomy. Sources within the US administration suggest that the main objective is to distance Turquía from the orbit of Kremlin and strengthen the cohesion of the OTAN in the face of growing tensions in Oriente Medio and the Mar NegroHowever, lifting the veto would be conditional on guarantees regarding the non-operational integration of the systems. S-400 with the technology of F-35.

Implications for Spain and European industry

Although the measure seeks to strengthen the OTAN at a global level, for European partners such as España The consequences are complex and double-edged. The reintegration of Turquía, which before its expulsion manufactured more than 900 components of the F-35This would mean the readmission of a top-tier industrial competitor. This could reconfigure the defense supply chains in which European companies participate. España, which operates within the program of Eurofighter Typhoon and contemplates the acquisition of F-35B For its navy, the main impact is geopolitical. A Turkish military equipped with fifth-generation fighter jets consolidates its air superiority in the Mediterráneo eastern, an area of vital importance for energy security and Spanish trade routes.

The economic prism: from investment to logistics

From a macroeconomic perspective, the convergence between Washington y Ankara It offers a more predictable scenario for Spanish companies with interests in TurquíaStabilizing relations could have a positive effect on the Turkish lira and investor confidence. Spanish financial institutions with significant exposure to the Turkish market, such as BBVA through his participation in Garanti BBVAThey would directly benefit from a reduction in the country risk premium. Furthermore, a Turquía Firmly anchored in the Western security structure, it is a stabilizing factor for the logistics corridors that connect Europa with AsiaThis is a key piece of information for Spanish exports. The decision, therefore, represents a complex calculation between the strategic risk in the Mediterráneo and the opportunity for greater economic stability in a key emerging market for España.