La Cámara de Comercio de España has revised its macroeconomic forecasts for 2026 upwards, estimating an advance of GPD of 2,3% thanks to the dynamism of domestic consumption and employment, despite extreme geopolitical volatility in Middle East.
Baseline scenario: Sustained growth and labor resilience
In its analysis of the current situation, the Cámara de España It forecasts that the Spanish economy will maintain an expansionary path with an increase of 2,3% in 2026 and 2% in 2027. This moderate optimism is based on the strength of domestic demandwhich will consolidate its position as the main economic engine, contributing 2,8 points to GPD in the next fiscal year.
The labor market will show a notably positive evolution. It is estimated that job creation will increase. 360.000 jobs in 2026 and nearly 300.000 in 2027, which would allow the unemployment rate to fall to 9,2% by the end of the period. However, inflation will remain a key factor to watch, averaging 2,7% during 2026.
Regarding investment, a shift in trend towards the sector of constructionwith projected growth rates of 5,2% and 4,8% for 2026 and 2027 respectively. This performance contrasts with a more modest expansion in capital goods and intellectual property, reflecting the progressive exhaustion of the funds' momentum NextGenerationEU.
Impact of the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz
The main threat to these forecasts lies in the direct confrontation between Irán and the coalition formed by Israel y Estados UnidosInstability in the Estrecho de Ormuz It is critical, since 20% of the world's crude oil and 25% of liquefied natural gas pass through this route (LNG).
In addition to energy, the blocking or increased cost of this route affects 15-20% of the global supply of nitrogen fertilizersThe logistics sector is already feeling the impact through the increase in insurance premiums and the diversion of routes, which significantly increases the operating costs of foreign trade.
| Macroeconomic Variable | 2026 (Forecast) | 2027 (Forecast) |
|---|---|---|
| GDP growth (%) | 2,3 % | 2,0 % |
| Job Creation (People) | 360.000 | 300.000 |
| Unemployment Rate (%) | 9,2 % | |
| Average Inflation (%) | 2,7 % | Moderation |
| Investment in Construction (%) | 5,2 % | 4,8 % |
Alternative scenarios in the face of uncertainty
Given the current volatility, the Cámara de España has designed two risk scenarios based on the duration of the armed conflict:
- Scenario 1 (Conflict of 2 to 3 months): The price of a barrel of Brent It would exceed $80. The growth of GPD It would fall to 2% in 2026 and inflation would climb an additional half point.
- Scenario 2 (Prolonged conflict): With crude oil above $90, growth would plummet to 1,6% in both years and average inflation would reach 4%, eroding business profitability.
In turn, the foreign sector It will show a negative growth balance, conditioned by weakened international demand. Exports are expected to grow by 1,9% in 2026, while imports will advance at a rate of 3,5%, driven by domestic consumption.
Key points and frequently asked questions about the forecasts of the Spanish Chamber of Commerce
What engine will drive the Spanish economy in 2026?
Growth will be primarily supported by national demandThanks to the dynamism of private consumption and the solid creation of employment, which will add more than 600.000 new jobs in the two-year period.
How does the conflict in the Strait of Hormuz affect trade?
It causes a drastic increase in logistics costs due to the rise in insurance premiums and the diversion of trade routes for global oil, gas and fertilizers.
What would happen if the price of oil exceeded $90?
In that scenario of prolonged conflict, the Spanish economy would slow its growth to 1,6% and inflation would soar to 4%, directly affecting the purchasing power of households.
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