The economy of España It grew 2,7% year-on-year in the first quarter of 2026, driven by strong domestic demand and consumption. Cámara de España warns about global uncertainty due to the closure of estrecho de Ormuz and the persistent decline in labor productivity.
The engine of domestic demand sustains GDP
The Spanish economy has started 2026 with greater momentum than expected, raising its year-on-year growth to 2,7 %, according to the progress of the National contability published by the INE en MadridThis rate represents an acceleration of one tenth compared to the end of the previous year and is supported by solid quarterly growth of 0,6%, confirming the capacity for resilience in a complex international context.
Growth continues to be based on the strength of the national demandwhose contribution to growth remained at 3,4 percentage points. The performance of [the following] stands out in particular. household consumption, which accelerated its year-on-year rate to 3,2%. Meanwhile, spending by Public Administrations It moderated its annual growth to 2,0%.
Investment and behavior of the foreign sector
In the area of investment, a technical slowdown is observed. Gross fixed capital formation growth stood at 5,6% year-on-year, hampered by weaker growth in... construction (6,0%). However, investment in equipment goods It shows a slight upward trend with a growth of 3,9%.
As regards the foreign sectorThe data reveals weak international demand. Exports of goods and services fell by 0,5% quarter-on-quarter, reducing their year-on-year growth to 0,9%. Overall, the external sector subtracted seven-tenths of a percentage point from GDP growth in this first quarter, affected by global logistical disruptions.
| Economic Indicator (Q1 2026) | Year-on-Year Rate (%) | Quarterly Change (%) |
|---|---|---|
| GDP growth | 2,7 % | 0,6 % |
| Household consumption | 3,2 % | 0,6 % |
| Investment (Gross Fixed Capital Formation) | 5,6 % | |
| Exports | 0,9 % | -0,5% |
| Occupation (Employment) | 2,8 % | 0,8 % |
The structural challenge: productivity and the labor market
The labor market has shown exceptional dynamism with a quarterly growth in employment of 0,8%, which translates into the creation of 583.000 jobs in the last year. However, this rate of job creation, exceeding GDP growth, has led to a further decline in labor productivity, which falls by -0,2% quarterly and has now recorded four consecutive quarters of negative rates.
Geopolitical uncertainty and forecasts for the year
La Cámara de España It points out that the evolution of world trade is subject to a high degree of uncertainty. After weeks of direct confrontation between Estados Unidos, Israel e Irán, estrecho de Ormuz It remains closed to maritime traffic, causing a structural disruption in supply chains.
Under this scenario, the Cámara de España foresees a growth of GDP of 2,3% for the whole of 2026 and an increase in employment of 1,6%, which would allow the creation of 360.000 jobs and place the unemployment rate at 9,8%.
- Energy risk: A prolonged lockdown could raise inflation above 4% and subtract up to 7 percentage points from growth.
- Reform agenda: It is considered a priority to safeguard competitiveness through regulatory simplification and legal certainty.
- Fiscal consolidation: It is necessary to prioritize the efficiency of public spending over tax increases that hinder investment.
Key points and frequently asked questions about the Spanish economy in 2026
What is the growth and employment forecast for the end of 2026?
La Cámara de España It projects GDP growth of 2,3% for the whole of the year and an increase in employment of 1,6%, which would mean the creation of about 360.000 new jobs.
How is the conflict in the Middle East affecting the economy?
The closing of estrecho de Ormuz It is disrupting supply chains and putting upward pressure on energy commodity prices, reducing the contribution to the Spanish external sector.
What is the main structural problem identified in the report?
Low labor productivity, which has been negative for four consecutive quarters (-0,1% year-on-year), remains the main challenge to ensure sustainable growth and absorb external shocks.
Any questions about this news?
Talk to Coexia, the AI of the foreign trade
