Geopolitical fragmentation and technological disruption usher in a new era of global competition

 

The managers of Marsh y Zurich Insurance Group They warn, in the context of the launch of Global Risks Report 2026 of the Foro Económico Mundialthat geopolitical divisions, disinformation, and technological challenges will define the immediate business landscape, demanding urgent collaboration between governments and businesses.

 

X-ray of the immediate and short-term risks

 

The report highlights an environment marked by the geoeconomic confrontation and interstate armed conflicts. However, experts point to a worrying shift in the two-year forecast: the disinformation and social polarization They have risen to second and third place in global concerns, respectively.

 

Andrew George, president of Specialty in Marsh Risk, underlines the seriousness of the social situation: “Growing divisions are at the heart of the social risks we all face, from social fragmentation and inequality to declining health and well-being.”According to the executive, the lack of government action on established frameworks is pushing societies towards "the limit of social instability".

 

Time horizon	Main Risks and Forecasts
Immediate (2026)	Geoeconomic confrontation, armed conflicts, extreme weather, polarization and disinformation.
Short Term (2 years)	Rise of disinformation (2nd place) and social polarization (3rd place).
Long Term (10 years)	57% foresee a turbulent outlook. Environmental and technological risks predominate.

 

A decade of turbulence: technology and the environment

 

Looking ahead, the report anticipates a new era of global competitionBusiness leaders project that the severity of 33 risks analyzed will increase over the next ten years, with the sole exception of geoeconomic confrontation. In this context, environmental and technological risks take center stage.

 

Artificial intelligence (AI) and quantum computing are identified as drivers of radical change. These advances will not only impact labor markets and geopolitics, but could also widen global economic gaps if they are not managed properly.

 

• Job redundancy due to automation.
• Economic concentration in dominant technological actors.
• Risk of systemic disruptions to digital trust.

 

The paradox of critical infrastructure and social health

 

An alarming finding of the report is the disconnect between the actual severity of certain threats and their perception in risk rankings. Peter GigerGroup Chief Risk Officer of Zurich, alert about a "dangerous lack of attention" towards critical infrastructure:

 

"Despite the fact that extreme weather events, cyberattacks and geopolitical conflicts pose increasing threats, disruptions to critical infrastructure rank only 23rd among global risks for the next decade."

 

This vulnerability affects everything from submarine cables to satellites and power grids, all essential for the functioning of the global economy. At the same time, Alison MartinCEO of Life, Health and Banking Distribution in ZurichIt expresses concern about the low priority given to long-term social risks, such as deteriorating health and inadequate pension systems, factors that are already transforming the work environment and social stability.

 

Critical Area	Challenge Identified	Expert Observation
Infrastructure	Vulnerability to cable cuts, satellites and weather.	Erroneously ranked low (23rd place) according to Peter Giger.
Health and Pensions	Threat to job security and social stability.	Alison Martin warns about the urgency of taking action regarding deficient public infrastructure.
Technology	AI and quantum computing.	Need for public-private collaboration according to Andrew George.

 

Key points and frequently asked questions about the Global Risks Report 2026

 

What are the most concerning risks in the short term?
By 2026, the dominant risks are geoeconomic confrontation, armed conflict between states, and extreme weather events. However, in a two-year projection, disinformation and social polarization rapidly rise to the top of the list.

 

What role do Artificial Intelligence and quantum computing play?
According to Marsh y ZurichThese technologies will transform labor markets and geopolitics. While they promise improvements in health and prosperity, they also carry risks of economic concentration and global inequalities that require joint management between governments and businesses.

 

Why is the situation of critical infrastructure a cause for concern?
There is an underestimation of the risk (ranked 23rd on the 10-year list) compared to the reality of underfunded and vulnerable systems. Failures in electrical grids or submarine cables would expose the entire interconnected economic system to risk.