Global resilience in an environment of geopolitical uncertainty
Globalization has demonstrated unexpected robustness by remaining at historically high levels through 2025. According to the DHL Global Connectivity Report 2026, produced by DHL and Escuela de Negocios Stern from the Universidad de Nueva York, the global level of integration was at 25 %, matching the record reached in 2022. This analysis, based on 9 million data points, confirms that companies and nations are not retreating behind their borders, but are seeking new avenues for expansion.
John Pearson, CEO DHL Express, highlights the value of these links: "Globalization remains strong, and that alone speaks volumes about its value. The world's greatest challenges can only be solved through global thinking."Despite this optimism, the report underlines that the world is far from full integration, with ample room for growth in international flows if political restrictions are reduced.
The impact of Artificial Intelligence and tariffs
The year 2025 was marked by accelerated growth in global trade, the fastest since 2017 (excluding the pandemic period). Two key factors drove this dynamism: the rush by US importers to place orders ahead of tariff increases and the boom in the Artificial IntelligenceProducts linked to the infrastructure of IA represented the 42 % of the growth in merchandise trade in the first three quarters of last year, according to data from the OMC.
The outlook for foreign trade suggests continued growth, with an average forecast of 2,6% annually until 2029Although the tariffs imposed by Estados Unidos They could slow the pace in 2026; diversification into trade agreements with alternative markets is mitigating the global impact.
| Key Indicator | Data / Value |
|---|---|
| Level of Globalization (2025) | 25 % |
| Growth in trade in goods AI (2025) | 42% of total growth |
| Stores EE.UU. China (2025) | 2,0% of world trade |
| Trade growth forecast (until 2029) | 2,6% per year |
| Average distance for trade of goods | 5.010 km |
Disconnection between powers and new investment poles
The report confirms the weakening of ties between Estados Unidos y ChinaTrade between the two fell to 2,0 % of the global total in 2025, far from the peak of 3,6% recorded in 2015. However, Professor Steven A. Altman, Director of the Iniciativa DHL sobre GlobalizaciónHe warns that the world is not divided into hermetic, rival blocs. Countries with flexible geopolitical positions, such as India y VietnamThey are capturing the flows that are diverted from the major powers.
Contrary to regionalization theories, goods are traveling ever greater distances, reaching a record of 5.010 kilometers on average. This indicates that supply chains are diversifying geographically rather than concentrating solely in nearby regions.
Spain's situation: A strategic bridge between continents
On the European scene, España occupy the post 34 out of 180 economies in the Global Connectivity Index, having fallen seven places since 2019. The report highlights the role of España as a critical connector between the Unión Europea y Américaespecially with Spanish-speaking countries. Although 62% of its flows are intra-European, its largest single partner outside the bloc is Estados Unidos.
- Singapore, Luxembourg and Netherlands They lead the ranking of the most globalized countries.
- Europe It is consolidating itself as the region with the greatest connectivity on the planet.
- The flows of people (travel and migration) have reached record highs after the pandemic.
Key points and frequently asked questions about the DHL 2026 Report
How has the tension between the US and China affected global trade?
Although direct trade between the two powers has fallen to 2% of the world total, the global impact is limited. Most trade flows have been redirected to neutral countries such as India y Vietnam, avoiding a fracturing of the system into closed blocks.
What role does Artificial Intelligence play in international logistics?
La IA It has become a fundamental economic engine, driving 42% of merchandise trade growth in 2025 due to the global need to build advanced technological infrastructures.
Is the global economy becoming regionalized?
The data suggests the opposite. In 2025, trade reached record distances of over 5.000 km, demonstrating that companies prefer global diversification to limiting themselves to nearby regional markets.
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