The war in Iran is dragging down business growth forecasts by 25% due to rising energy costs

 

The outbreak of war in Irán On February 28th, the World Economic Forum reduced its global business growth forecasts by 25% due to rising energy costs. According to the latest report, Gedeth Network y DHL ExpressOptimism persists even though international instability is now the main corporate threat.

 

Impact of the conflict on macroeconomic forecasts

 

The global business landscape is facing a significant plot twist. The competition in Irán has led to concern about the energy cost It quadrupled, rising from a negligible 6% before the hostilities to an alarming 26%. This direct inflationary pressure has caused growth expectations to fall by 15 percentage points in just one month.

 

Before the February 28 attacks, 59,6% of organizations held an expansionary outlook. After the start of the war, only 45% expect to maintain that growth rate, while the percentage of companies anticipating a worsening of their situation has risen from 1,9% to 6,8%. This slowdown coincides with the expiration of a new ultimatum from Donald Trumpraising tensions in currency and commodity markets.

 

Expectations Indicator (2026)	Pre-war (Pre-Feb 28)	Current Situation (Post-war)
Growth expectations	59,6%	45,0%
Concern over energy costs	6,0%	26,0%
Threat of international instability	52,0%	72,0%
Plans to expand staff	29,1%	20,45%
Sales stable or increasing		84,9%

 

Resilience in global sales and employment

 

Despite the war-torn environment, the business sector shows a remarkable resilience84,9% of companies are confident that their sales will remain stable or even grow during 2026. However, moderate pessimism is gaining ground: the number of companies expecting a decrease in their revenue has doubled, reaching 12,3% compared to 5,6% before the conflict.

 

Regarding the labor market, caution prevails. One in five companies (20,45%) maintains its plans to expand its workforce this year, a figure that has fallen from the 29,1% initially projected. Meanwhile, the majority of organizations (55,7%) will opt for... employment stability, maintaining their current equipment in the face of uncertainty in foreign trade.

 

Threats and strategies: The Donald Trump factor

 

Risk perception has evolved dramatically. international instability It is consolidating its position as the biggest threat (cited by 72% of respondents), followed by the tariffs and trade barriers (54%). This last point takes on special relevance as it marks one year since Liberation Day, promulgated by Donald Trump the 2 of April of 2025.

 

To mitigate these risks, companies are prioritizing the following strategies:

 

• Market diversification: Priority for 33,6% of entities to avoid dependence on conflict regions.
• Cost optimization: Key to the 22,1% increase in energy input costs.
• Digitization and Artificial Intelligence: Identified as the biggest business opportunity by 56,8% of executives.

 

Sectoral and regional analysis

 

The study, prepared by Gedeth Network After consulting more than 50.000 companies in 90 countries, it highlights that the region EMEA It is the most affected by the proximity of and dependence on the conflict. Conversely, companies in América y Asia-Pacífico They maintain a more optimistic tone.

 

By sector, technology and ICT lead in trust with 63,3% positive mentions, thanks to their capacity for innovation and lower exposure to physical risks. This is followed by the sector of energy and sustainability (38,4%) and biotechnology (26,2%).

 

According to what he says Juan MillánCEO Gedeth"The results of the study reflect a higher-than-expected business resilience in the face of the combination of tariffs in 2025 and the outbreak of war at the end of February 2026. The technology, energy and health sectors continue to be the most benefited, while traditional sectors perceive greater risks."

 

Key points and frequently asked questions about the economic impact of the war

 

How has the war affected growth forecasts?

Growth expectations have fallen by 25% (15 percentage points) since the start of the conflict in Irán, going from 59,6% to 45% of companies that expect to grow.

 

What is the main concern of companies today?

International instability is the number one risk (72%), while concern about the cost of energy has quadrupled to reach 26% of responses.

 

Which sectors are weathering the geopolitical crisis best?

The technology and ICT (63,3%), energy (38,4%) and biotechnology (26,2%) sectors have the best prospects thanks to their capacity for innovation and diversification.