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Economic Outlook Report
The manufacturing sector in Biscay demonstrates a remarkable capacity for adaptation in the face of a turbulent global scenario. Despite energy disruptions, the sluggishness of major powers like France and Germany, and inflationary pressures, the 84% of companies expect to maintain or increase their production in the second half of the year. The weakness of the euro and the surge in sales to the United States are driving the Capabilities of the territory, according to the latest analysis of the Bilbao Chamber of Commerce.
The international macroeconomic scenario for 2026 continues to pose significant logistical and financial challenges, but companies in Biscay have managed to avoid much of the uncertainty. According to the latest Economic Outlook Report drawn up by the Bilbao Chamber of Commerce, Industry, Services and NavigationThe economy of the historical territory will register a moderate GDP growth of 1,9% at the end of 2026. This figure matches the estimates for the whole of the Basque Country and, very significantly, more than doubles the anemic 0,8% projected for the Eurozone, although it remains below the 2,6% expected at the national level.
Monetary policy continues to set the pace of international Business and financing. With inflation climbing to 3,5% in Bizkaia in June—surpassing the Basque Country and Spain (3,2%) and the European average (2,8%)—the European Central Bank has maintained a cycle of interest rate cuts, bringing them to 2,25%. Meanwhile, the foreign exchange market has played a key role in the foreign tradeSince the end of 2025, the euro has depreciated by 3,03% against the dollar (going from 1,1750 to 1,1394 dollars) and by 1,24% against the pound sterling.
This loss of value of the common currency has acted as a double-edged sword: on the one hand, it has made imports invoiced in US dollars more expensive; on the other, it has boosted the competitiveness of Basque products in the international markets that holds the top spot. "Industrial companies in Bizkaia are showing great resilience in the face of geopolitical events that directly affect their activity, consolidating their business volume in an adverse context."This is evident from the conclusions of the chamber report."
The export engine and port logistics are not slowing down.
Between January and April 2026, the Biscayan exports soared by 8,1%While imports grew at a slower pace (6,4%), the trade deficit remains stable at around €1.359 billion, and the coverage ratio has improved to 74,5%. Bizkaia's role is becoming increasingly significant, now representing almost all of the total. 40% of total Basque exports.
Regarding destinations, France and Germany They remain the priority trading partners, accounting for more than 30% of exports. However, the significant qualitative leap in the North American market stands out: exports to United States They grew by 6%, exceeding the €200 million mark this year. In line with this commercial trend, the traffic in the Port of Bilbao It has experienced a rebound of 9,19% until May, driven mainly by liquid bulk cargo (+16,96%) and containerized goods (+5,72%).
Record stability in industrial and tourism employment
At the employment level, Bizkaia marked a historic milestone in June by registering 526.147 Social Security contributorsconfirming the dynamism of key sectors. The unemployment rate for the first quarter (7,9%) is significantly below the national average (10,8%). The services sector, which accounts for 70% of activity, has been strongly supported by tourism: overnight stays exceeded 345.000 in May, with an overwhelming presence of foreign tourists (58%). This massive influx is also reflected in the Bilbao airportwhich has grown by 8,5%, reaching almost three million passengers in just five months, driven by the international routes.
Meanwhile, the retail sector continues to undergo profound restructuring. Although it has lost 25% of its stores since 2014, it has managed to increase its sales by 19%, exceeding €7.523 billion in total revenue.
Optimism at the factory despite geopolitical tension
La Industrial Situation SurveyThe figure included in the report reflects a climate of confidence. 65% of manufacturers maintained or increased their production at the start of the year, and an overwhelming 84% expect this positive trend to continue in the second half of the year. The main challenge remains talent acquisition and the operating costsHigh energy and raw material prices, coupled with difficulties in hiring qualified professionals, dominate the concerns of businesses, above tariff policies or the cost of financing.
El conflict between the US and Iran It is emerging as the main geopolitical risk. 72% of companies in Biscay admit to having suffered negative impacts from this crisis, especially in the supply chain. logistics and international transportationas well as in the energy bill. However, Washington's strict framework of international sanctions has barely altered its bureaucratic operations, demonstrating a high degree of professionalization in the departments of compliance and confidentiality of exporting firms. Given the possibility that these tensions could become chronic, 32% of companies are already considering pass these additional costs on to the final price of their products, thus protecting their profit margins.
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