TRADE TENSIONS
The Brazilian industrial sector anticipates a contraction in its exports for the first time in 2026, specifically for the next six months. The direct cause is the proposed new trade tariffs by the Trump Administration, according to a June survey by the National Confederation of Industry (CNI).
The confidence of industrial entrepreneurs Brasil The performance of its exports has taken a drastic turn downward. For the first time this year, the sector projects a drop in its foreign sales for the next six months, a direct reaction to the protectionist trade policy implemented since WashingtonAccording to the latest Industrial Survey of Confederação Nacional da Indústria (CNI), the export expectations index plummeted 1,5 points in June, settling at 49,7 pointsThis data is significant, since by falling below the 50-point threshold, it reverses the trend and shifts from a growth outlook to one of contraction.
The trigger for this change in sentiment was the formal proposal from the Trade Representative of Estados Unidos (USTR) to impose new tariff barriers on Brazilian products. Although the measure has not yet been implemented, the mere possibility has generated considerable uncertainty. Marcelo Azevedo, Economic Analysis Manager of the CNIHe noted that "the possibility of [the tariff increase] alters the expectations of business owners, since Estados Unidos It is the main destination for Brazilian industrial products."
Pessimism is not limited to exports. Business investment intentions have also declined, with the corresponding index falling 1,3 points to 53,5 points, reversing the upward trend of May. Despite this contraction, the indicator remains above its historical average. Similarly, expectations regarding product demand and raw material purchases have also moderated, although both indicators remain above 50 points, suggesting slower growth in the coming months. The hiring outlook, meanwhile, remained virtually unchanged at 50,5 points.
These expectations data come against an already weakened industrial backdrop. The production evolution index, although it improved slightly in May, remained at 48,9 points, indicating a contraction in activity for the second consecutive month. More worrying is the evolution of employment in the sector, whose indicator has been... 16 consecutive months below the 50-point level, indicating a net and prolonged destruction of jobs in the industry.
Implications for Spanish trade and industry
The Administration's tariff policy Trump towards a key trading partner such as Brasil This generates a domino effect that transcends the American continent and has strategic implications for España and Unión EuropeaFor Spanish companies, the situation presents a double-edged sword. On the one hand, a possible diversion of Brazilian trade could intensify competition in the European market, as exporters of Brasil They would seek alternative destinations for their industrial products if access to Estados Unidos.
On the other hand, the imposition of tariffs on Brazilian products could open windows of opportunity for Spanish exporters in the US market. Companies in sectors such as machinery, automotive components, and semi-finished products could gain market share if their Brazilian competitors lose competitiveness due to the new tariffs. However, the main scenario for Spanish executives is one of increased global uncertainty, which requires a reassessment of supply chains and close monitoring of upcoming trade decisions. Washington, which could extend to other economic blocs.
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