Global Foreign Investment falls 3% year-on-year, driven by a sharp decline in the European Union

International Overview: Sectoral Decline and Heterogeneity

La United Nations Conference on Trade and Development (UNCTAD) has revealed that foreign investment worldwide fell to 737.000 million in the first half of 2025. Geographically, the collapse was particularly sharp in the European Union, with a contraction of 25%. In contrast, North America saw a 5% increase in investment inflows, supported by recent trade agreements in the United States.. Flows also grew in Asia (7%) and in Latin America, which registered a remarkable increase of 12%.

At the sectoral level, investment showed a "notable heterogeneity". The automotive industry was the most affected, with a 60% drop and that of hydrocarbons with a decrease of close to 30%. Conversely, the services sector experienced a increase of approximately 20%, driven mainly by the construction of new data centers. UNCTAD warns that the future scenario remains the same. "challenging" due to geopolitical tensions, regional conflicts and fragmentation of the economy.

Latin America: Tension in Brazil and Venezuela

En Brazil, a large militarized police operation in Rio de Janeiro, called "Operation Containment", has generated a political crisis. The action against the Red Command (CV) In favelas like the Alemão and Penha complex, the violence resulted in at least 132 deaths, including 4 police officers.. Rio's right-wing governor, Cláudio Castro, defended the action Within the framework of "war on narcoterrorism". However, the operation, carried out without the support of the Federal Government, has caused "strong tension" with President Lula da Silva. This event puts the spotlight on public safety, an area in which the opposition capitalizes on the "tough on crime" narrative in the face of Lula's disadvantage..

Furthermore, the tension between Venezuela and the United States has escalated following reports that the US The US may be preparing "imminent attacks against strategic targets" in Venezuelan territory. Officially, the increased US military deployment in the southern Caribbean is presented as a counternarcotics operation to dismantle the "Cartel of the Suns" and intensify pressure on Nicolás Maduro.. Although a large-scale military invasion It is considered unlikely; the possibility of a "Surgical strike" with drones or missiles.

Asia: Trump Ends Tour with Trade Truce

President Donald Trump's recent Asian tour concluded with the signing of a temporary trade truce with China in South KoreaChina agreed to resume the purchase of US soybeans and address the trafficking of fentanyl precursors, in exchange for the US. The US will reduce some tariffsThe tour focused on securing investment deals in the US. US and strengthen supply chains.

Japan led the commitments with 550.000 million in investments for US industry. South Korea It also boosted technology purchases and commitments, notably the acquisition of aircraft and engines, as well as a $5.000 billion investment by Amazon in the cloud.. A central objective was the diversification of supplies of critical minerals (or rare earth elements) to reduce dependence on China, achieving Memoranda of Understanding with Malaysia, Thailand and Japan.

In Indonesia, the high-speed rail project "Whoosh", financed by China under the Belt and Road Initiative (cost $7.300 billion) ), is facing problems. Due to its high ticket costs and the distance of its stations from urban centers, passenger traffic is only a third of what was expected.. The Indonesian consortium has reported Millionaires losesforcing the Government to initiate debt restructuring negotiations with China.

OECD: Federal Reserve Cuts Rates Again

The U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) It cut its main interest rate again by 25 basis points (bps), bringing it into the range of 3,75%-4%. This is the second consecutive decline and is partly due to the loss of dynamism in the labor market. Consumer price inflation was 3% year-on-year in September. In addition, the Fed announced that It will end its balance sheet reduction program as of December 1..

Africa: Elections and Conflicts

En Ivory Coast, President Alassane Ouattara He renewed his mandate with a overwhelming 89,77% of the votes in the elections of October 25. The victory was expected given his popularity and the distancing themselves from their strongest opponents of the electoral race. Opposition candidate Tidjane Thiam denounced that "It wasn't a real election".

En Tanzania, the president Samia Suluhu Hassan He was sworn into office after a victory with 97,6% of the votes but the result has triggered "violent protests" due to irregularities. The opposition denounces a marked democratic backsliding y the "wave of terror" in which critics and opponents have been sidelined, imprisoned, or have disappeared.

Finally, in Sudan, the bloody takeover of El Fasher, the capital of North Darfur, by the paramilitary group Rapid Support Forces (RSF) mark a crucial point which brings the country closer to the fragmentation. The RSF are heirs of the Janjaweed, responsible for the Darfur genocide.

Source: CESCE