The OECD forecasts a global slowdown to 2,9% as the energy crisis shakes Asia

 

During the last week of March 2026, the OCDE It confirmed a global economic slowdown to 2,9%, driven by the lockdown in the Estrecho de Ormuz. While Asia declares energy emergencies, Estados Unidos y China They seek to stabilize trade through an upcoming bilateral summit.

 

Macroeconomic Outlook: Slowdown in Global Growth

 

La Organización para la Cooperación y el Desarrollo Económico (OCDEThe World Economic Forum has projected that the pace of global economic growth will slow by four tenths of a percent in 2026. This scenario is exacerbated by persistent inflation, which has been revised upwards due to distortions in the hydrocarbon market caused by tensions in the Medio Oriente.

 

In Euro zonedynamism will be particularly subdued, with a forecast of just 0,8%. Conversely, Estados Unidos It will maintain a growth rate of 2%, supported by the technological investment linked to projects of Artificial Intelligence. ChinaMeanwhile, its growth will moderate to 4,4% due to the end of consumer subsidies and the crisis in its construction sector.

 

Region / Country	Growth Forecast 2026	Inflation Forecast
World (Global)	2,9 %	On the rise
Zona Euro	0,8 %	2,6 %
Estados Unidos	2,0 %	4,2 %
China	4,4 %	N / A

 

Energy Crisis in Asia and Geopolitics in the Middle East

 

The Asian region has entered a phase of economic alarmThe persistent closure of Estrecho de Ormuz has forced countries like Filipinas to declare the National State of Emergency. Irán has imposed a "sovereignty toll" of up to $2 million in cryptocurrencies or yuan for each vessel transiting the zone, a measure that only partially relieves partners such as India o Pakistán.

 

In this context, the president Donald Trump has given a deadline of 10 days to Irán to reach an agreement before a possible large-scale ground operation. Estados Unidos has reinforced its deployment with the dispatch of the ships USS Trípoli y USS Boxer, adding more than 57.000 troops in the region.

 

New Trade Alliances: EU and Australia

 

In contrast to the tensions, the Unión Europea has closed a historic Free trade agreement with AustraliaThis agreement aims to eliminate 99% of tariffs, generating an estimated savings of €1.000 billion annually for European companies and guaranteeing access to critical raw materials for the energy transition.

 

• Expected increase in European exports of 33%.
• Protection of Denominations of Origin of agri-food products.
• Strengthened cooperation framework in security and defense.
• Elimination of barriers to digital services.

 

Latin America: Institutional Challenges and Cooperation with Africa

 

The report "Democracy under tension" by the OEI He warns about the institutional deterioration in the region, citing cases in Venezuela, El Salvador y México. In parallel, the CELAC, under the new pro tempore presidency of Uruguay leadered by Yamandú Orsi, aims to diversify its international presence through a high-level forum with the Unión Africana held in Bogotá.

 

On the other hand, Cesce Its weekly highlights focus on the progress of the legal proceedings against Nicolás Maduro en Nueva York, while the administration Trump selectively relaxes diplomatic sanctions to allow Venezuelan missions to operate in US territory.

 

Security and Defense: The European Commission's AGILE Programme

 

Brussels has launched the instrument AGILE, endowed with 115 million euros, designed to accelerate the arrival to market of disruptive technologies defense. This program will allow SMEs y startups Receive up to 100% funding to turn innovations into military equipment in a record time of one to three years.

 

Funding Source (AGILE)	Budget (Millions €)
European Defence Fund and Industrial Programme	70,0
Space Plans (Galileo y Copernicus)	22,5
Secure Connectivity Program	22,5
Total	115,0

 

Source: Cesce

 

 

Key points and frequently asked questions about Country Risk

 

What impact does the closure of the Strait of Hormuz have on inflation?

The blockade directly distorts the hydrocarbon market, raising global energy costs. OCDE It is estimated that this will increase inflation in the Euro zone up to 2,6% and in Estados Unidos up to 4,2%, preventing short-term interest rate cuts.

 

When will the summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping take place?

After being postponed due to military operations in IránThe bilateral summit has been confirmed for the days 14 and 15 of May of 2026 en Beijing, with a reciprocal visit of Xi Jinping a Washington D.C. planned for the second half of the year.

 

What economic risks does Mozambique currently face?

El Banco Mundial It warns of a high risk of over-indebtedness, as spending on wages and interest absorbed 87% of tax revenues in 2025. This jeopardizes $50.000 billion worth of gas projects, vital to its recovery.