Photography WTO.
Global Trade Analysis 2026
Jennifer Nordquist, Deputy Director-General of the WTO, defended the centrality of the multilateral system during the presentation of the 'Future of Trade' report. Nordquist emphasized that, despite geopolitical tensions, 74% of global trade continues to operate under the organization's rules, which are adapting through new plurilateral agreements.
During the presentation of the report Future of Trade 2026Organized by the Dubai Multi Commodities Centre (DMCC) and Asia House, the Deputy Director General of the Organización Mundial del Comercio (OMC), Jennifer Nordquist, has firmly defended the central role of the organization in a complex global environment. Nordquist He debunked the narratives about its irrelevance, highlighting its adaptability and its intrinsic value for the predictability of international business.
In contrast to the headlines that focus on the fragmentation, the de-risking and friction, the directive of the OMC He provided data that paints a more nuanced picture. "Global trade in goods and services expanded by approximately 4,7% in 2025, almost double the rate of global economic growth (2,9%)," he noted. Although a slowdown to 1,9% is expected in 2026, projections point to a recovery to 2,6% in 2027.
The relevance of the multilateral system in figures
To paraphrase the American comedian Mark Twain, Nordquist He stated that "the reports on the death of the OMC They have been greatly exaggerated. The organization now has 166 Membersand more than 20 governments are negotiating their membership. No member has ever opted to leave the organization, which, according to Nordquist, demonstrates the perceived value of membership.
"Despite the rapid growth of bilateral and regional trade agreements, approximately the 74% of world merchandise trade It is still conducted on most-favored-nation (MFN) terms under the rules of the OMC“He explained. In his analysis, regional agreements are built upon the multilateral framework that remains the foundation of global trade.”
| Indicator | Price |
|---|---|
| Global trade growth (2025) | + 4,7 % |
| Global GDP growth (2025) | + 2,9 % |
| Merchandise trade forecast (2026) | + 1,9 % |
| Merchandise trade forecast (2027) | + 2,6 % |
| Rules-based trade OMC (NMF) | Up to 74% |
Adaptation and practical value: the "unsung heroes" of commerce
The executive highlighted that the OMC It is adapting to new realities through plurilateral initiativesExamples include recent agreements on national regulation of services, facilitating investment for development, and e-commerce. These agreements are seen as a pragmatic way to move forward in rulemaking where full consensus is difficult to achieve.
However, the greatest value of the organism, according to NordquistIt lies in their daily work. “The committees are the unsung heroes of the multilateral system,” he stated. Annually, Members submit hundreds of trade concerns ranging from technical standards to customs procedures, and according to data from the OMC"Approximately half are resolved through dialogue. Every concern resolved is a potential disruption avoided."
This role is magnified during crises. During the pandemic of COVID-19, the OMC It was key to identifying bottlenecks. Today, given the tensions in the Strait of HormuzThe agency monitors trade flows in real time. "Of the 78 trade measures introduced so far in response to the disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, around 70% have facilitated trade," it revealed. Nordquist, in contrast to the more restrictive responses seen in previous crises.
The challenge of reform and the future of e-commerce
Nordquist He acknowledged the need for reform, noting that "the global economy has changed dramatically since 1995, but the rules have not been updated to reflect economic reality." The main obstacle is reaching a consensus among 166 Members with diverse priorities.
Regarding the failure to formally adopt the Package Yaundé, which included the extension of the e-commerce moratoriumThe board downplayed the matter, noting that it is not unprecedented and that negotiations are actively continuing. Ginebra"In the past, governments have not rushed to introduce tariffs, and they have not done so this time either, at least so far," he reassured, highlighting the commitment of the 23 Members not to impose tariffs on each other.
In his conclusion, Jennifer Nordquist He asserted that, although technologies and supply chains evolve, the need for cooperation, predictability, and transparency will not change. "These functions are becoming more important, not less. OMC "It remains the foundation," he concluded.
Key points and frequently asked questions about the role of the WTO in 2026
How does the validity of the WTO affect a Spanish exporting SME?
For a Spanish SME, the validity of the OMC It is fundamental because it guarantees a framework of tariff predictability and stability in most of its markets. The rules of the OMC They ensure that customs procedures and technical regulations do not change arbitrarily, reducing risks and operating costs. Furthermore, it provides a forum where the Government of España It may raise business concerns that affect your companies.
What are plurilateral agreements and why are they important now?
Plurilateral agreements are pacts negotiated by a group of members of the OMCinstead of all 166. They are important because they allow progress in modernizing trade rules in key areas such as e-commerce or the facilitation of investments, where achieving unanimous consensus is extremely difficult. They represent a pragmatic way for the OMC adapt to the 21st century economy without becoming paralyzed.
If the moratorium on e-commerce has expired, should Spanish e-commerce companies be worried?
Although the global moratorium prohibiting tariffs on electronic transmissions was not formally renewed, the situation is not cause for immediate alarm. As it indicated Jennifer NordquistThis is not the first time this has happened, and countries have not reacted by imposing new tariffs. Furthermore, a group of 66 Members is provisionally implementing the Agreement on Electronic Commerce, and 23 of them have committed not to impose tariffs, covering a significant portion of digital trade.
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