OPEC+ is easing its production as global trade is reshaped amid new alliances and tariff tensions

Cesce Country Risk Report, June 29-July 5, 2026

The global economy faces a crucial week marked by increased oil tariffs, a temporary halt to the trade war between the European Union and China, and the search for new strategic partners in blocs like Mercosur. Meanwhile, political crises, natural disasters, and military escalations in the Middle East, Asia, and Latin America are adding pressure to already strained supply chains.

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The international energy market has registered a key movement following the agreement of the Expanded Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC+), leadered by Saudi Arabia y Russia, to increase their extraction quotas in 188.000 barrels per day (b/d) on July 5th. This marks the fifth consecutive increase this year, accumulating nearly one million additional barrels per day. The normalization of this flow to the market has been made possible by the recent preliminary peace agreement between United States and Iran, which begins to unblock maritime traffic in the Strait of HormuzNations like Iraq have strongly supported this easing of restrictions to clean up their finances. Consequently, and coupled with increased pumping in countries outside the cartel such as Brazil, the United States, and GuyanaThe price of Brent crude oil has fallen to pre-war levels, hovering around $70.

In this same geographical area, Kuwait It recovers its capacity at high speed, reaching the 1,9 million b/d after having fallen to barely half a million during the worst of the maritime blockade. For their part, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) —which left OPEC just a month ago after 60 years of historic membership— achieved a record export figure exceeding the 3,7 million b/d In June, strategically supported by their Fujairah oil pipeline. All this unfolds under the shadow of official mourning in Iran, which expects the mobilization of up to 20 million people for the Ayatollah's funeral Ali KhameneiHe died in a bombing raid at the beginning of the war. The ceremonies are attended by delegations from around one hundred countries, although the absence of his wounded successor, due to security reasons, is notable. Mojtaba Khamenei.

In the realm of global trade, the specter of a bloody tariff war between the European Union and China It has been temporarily frozen following the Brussels summit on June 30. The two powers signed their first joint declaration since 2019 to address a record trade deficit of nearly 360.000 millones de eurosThey have established new technical mechanisms, although the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, issued a clear warning by emphasizing that the community bloc «He's prepared for anything."if Beijing does not offer tangible concessions before October."

North America, meanwhile, is entering a period of caution: the United States has rejected the automatic renewal of the T-MEC (the former NAFTA), forcing annual reviews for the next decade and shortening trade certainty to 2036 instead of 2042. Washington seeks to use this new framework to curb the entry of Mexican manufactured goods with a high Chinese production component, which puts the booming [Mexican economy] on alert. automotive, semiconductor and electronics industries. Mexico, which sends 76% of its exports to its northern neighbor and which captured a Foreign direct investment record of 40.871 million In 2025 (despite a meager GDP growth of 0,6%), it is closely monitoring these demands.

Further south, the block of Mercosur It concluded its 68th Summit in Asunción, formalizing the start of negotiations with Japan and accelerating its opening to Asian giants such as India, Vietnam, and the United Arab Emirates. Uruguay Assuming the six-month presidency and prioritizing the agreement with the EU, the bloc still faces severe tensions. Paraguay demands a more equitable distribution of export quotas, Argentina It demands greater freedom of bilateral negotiation, and Brazil It seeks to foster cohesion by injecting $100 million annually in structural funds and boosting its system Pix for future financial integration that reduces exposure to the dollar. At the same time, Bolivia has reaffirmed its full accession process after weeks of strong internal blockades against the Rodrigo Paz administration.

At the political and humanitarian levels, Latin America faces other major challenges. El Salvador, Nayib Bukele He officially announced his pre-candidacy to govern until 2033, backed by his high popularity on security issues and a controversial constitutional reform. Meanwhile, Venezuela It is suffering the consequences of a devastating double earthquake on the coast of La Guaira, which has already left 3.342 fatalities and structural damage that the UNDP estimates at up to $8.700 billion (about 6% of its GDP), further hindering the nation's economic recovery.

Geopolitics in Asia remains highly volatile. China It raised regional tensions on July 6 after firing a missile from a nuclear submarine into the Pacific Ocean. Although the official Xinhua news agency called it a "routine arrangement"Powers like Australia criticized the maneuver for being «destabilizingThis demonstration precedes the naval military exercises. Seal Sea-2026 which Beijing and Moscow will hold in July. Meanwhile, a very serious military escalation has broken the ceasefire between Pakistan and AfghanistanThe crisis erupted after the Jamaat-ul-Ahrar group's attack in Karachi, which provoked reprisals withprecision attacks"of the Pakistani army on Afghan soil and a subsequent, unprecedented drone incursion from Kabul. On another Asian front, Bangladesh It suffers a massive industrial paralysis due to widespread blackouts, the result of a liquidity crisis for importing hydrocarbons and a heat wave that is financially suffocating private generating companies.

Eastern Europe and the African continent complete this turbulent panorama. European Union It strengthens its economic ties with the Caucasus, removing tariffs on almost 80% of exports from Armenia and promoting a €200 million investment package to foster lasting peace with Azerbaiyán. On the contrary, in MoldovaTax reforms on basic foodstuffs forced the recent resignation of the pro-European prime minister. Alexandru Munteanu amidst street protests. European defense sector It also raises doubts: the project to merge the satellite branches of Airbus, Thales and Leonardo It faces resistance due to the risk of monopoly, and the failure of the joint FCAS fighter jet highlights industrial fragmentation ahead of the vital NATO summit in Ankara, which will be attended by Donald Trump.

Finally, in Sub-Saharan Africa, Ethiopia It breathes a sigh of relief after reaching a preliminary agreement to restructure $1.000 billion in defaulted eurobonds, achieving a 12% haircut and securing IMF disbursements. Tanzania It strengthens its monetary policy by raising interest rates to 6,25% to control inflation, while South Africa It is deploying its armed forces to curb a dangerous escalation of xenophobic violence against immigrants, fueled by a chronic recession and an unemployment rate exceeding 30%.

Source: Cesce