Trump's industrial promise weakens: doubts arise about reshoring and its impact on global trade

Royalty-free stock photograph created by Christopher Burns and Unsplash.

Economic Policy in the USA

Despite the Trump administration's protectionist policies, recent reports from the Financial Times indicate a stagnation in the US industrial recovery. This scenario opens a new debate about the effectiveness of reshoring and its consequences for Spanish exporters.

---

Despite the vigorous protectionist policies implemented by the administration of Donald Trump since his return to the Casa BlancaRecent reports from the prestigious newspaper Financial Times They point to a worrying stagnation in the expected industrial resurgence of Estados UnidosThis scenario, dated to mid-2026, generates a new debate about the viability of 'reshoring' and raises serious questions for Spanish companies with interests in the North American market and in global supply chains.

The strategy, based on tariffs and strong incentives to repatriate production, does not appear to be yielding the expected results as quickly as promised. Analysis suggests that the complexity of global value chains, structural costs, and technological dependence on external markets are more difficult barriers to overcome than political rhetoric had anticipated.

Trump's protectionism fails to achieve the industrial 'miracle'

The president's "America First" policy Trump, which has marked his second term, focused on revitalizing the country's industrial belt by relocating factories, especially from AsiaHowever, emerging data indicates that, while some isolated movements have occurred, a massive structural change has not materialized. According to international analysts, «The inertia of decades of offshoring and the efficiency of current supply chains cannot be reversed solely through decrees and tariffs.«.

The main obstacles identified are:

• Labor and operating costs: The cost difference with other markets remains a decisive factor for many industries.
• Shortage of skilled labor: Automation requires technical profiles that are not abundant in certain regions of EEUU.
• Dollar strength: A strong dollar, paradoxically, makes exports of products manufactured on American soil more expensive, reducing their competitiveness.
• Resilience of Asian supply chains: Despite geopolitical tensions, the efficiency and productive capacity of Asiaand in particular of ChinaIt remains fundamental for a large number of multinational companies.

Comparative Analysis: Expectations vs. Reality of US Industrial Policy (2025-2026)

To understand the magnitude of the challenge, managers must assess the gap between the objectives declared by management. Trump and the reality of the market. This mismatch has direct implications for the strategic planning of Spanish companies.

Stated Objective	Observed Reality (2026)	Impact on Spanish Companies
Massive increase in local manufacturing production.	Modest growth concentrated in strategic sectors (semiconductors, defense). Stagnation in others.	Risk of lower demand for components and capital goods if the economy EEUU It cools down.
Drastic reduction of dependence on China.	Imports of key components of Asia They remain vital. Increased friend-shoring with allies such as México.	Opportunity to position yourself as a high-quality alternative supplier from Europa or to invest in México.
Creation of high-value industrial jobs.	Job creation is slower than expected due to the high level of automation in the new plants.	Lower demographic and consumption impact than expected, affecting market projections for consumer goods.

The impact for Spain: Opportunities and risks in the supply chain

For Spanish businesses, this scenario presents a duality. On the one hand, the persistence of US protectionism and a possible economic slowdown represent a direct risk to exportersespecially in sectors such as automotive components, capital goods, and the auxiliary industry. A contraction in demand in EEUU It would have a domino effect.

On the other hand, the partial failure of reshoring opens a window of opportunityUS companies that fail to relocate their production efficiently will continue to need reliable suppliers. Here, Spanish and European companies can position themselves as a key player. strategic partner of quality and trustan alternative to Asian uncertainty. Furthermore, the rise of nearshoring towards México This could benefit Spanish companies that supply machinery and technology for new factories being built in the neighboring country of EEUU.

Key points and frequently asked questions about Trump's 'reshoring'

How does the industrial stagnation in the US affect Spanish exports?

In the short term, it could reduce demand for Spanish components and machinery if new factory projects slow down. In the long term, if the reshoring policy fails, it could stabilize demand for high-quality external suppliers, benefiting well-positioned Spanish companies as a reliable alternative to Asian markets.

Is the US still a priority market for Spanish companies despite these difficulties?

Absolutely. Estados Unidos It remains one of the world's largest economies. However, companies must adapt their strategies, diversify risks, and not rely solely on growth in the local manufacturing sector. Sectors such as services, technology, food, and consumer goods continue to offer significant opportunities.

What alternatives exist if Trump's reshoring policies are tightened?

Managers should explore friend-shoring and nearshoring strategies. This involves considering México not only as a final market, but as a productive platform for accessing EEUU, taking advantage of the trade agreements of T-MECStrengthen our presence in other markets such as Unión Europea o Canadá It is also a prudent diversification strategy.