The Federal Reserve warns: the conflict with Iran is generating more uncertainty than Trump's trade war.

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Geopolitics and Global Markets

A governor of the US Federal Reserve has indicated that the conflict with Iran represents a greater source of economic uncertainty than tariff disputes. This warning highlights the volatility of supply chains and energy costs, with a direct impact on foreign trade.

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The focus of uncertainty shifts from tariffs to geopolitics

Tension in global markets has a new epicenter. According to statements by a governor of the Reserva Federal de Estados Unidos (Fed), the ongoing armed conflict with Irán It is generating a significantly higher level of economic uncertainty than the tariff policies implemented by the president's administration. Donald TrumpThis statement, made on May 25, 2026, marks a turning point in risk analysis for companies with international operations, including Spanish ones.

While the "trade war" has become a factor that companies have learned to live with, adjusting their value chains and pricing strategies, an armed conflict in a region key to global energy and logistics introduces a unpredictability factor much more complex to manage. "The uncertainty stemming from tariffs, while harmful, is largely quantifiable," say analysts consulted by Empresa Exterior"However, the consequences of an armed conflict are exponential and affect multiple variables, from the cost of insurance to the safety of maritime routes."

Direct impact on the Spanish supply chain and logistics

For exporting and importing companies EspañaThis warning from the Fed It has direct and tangible implications. The main concern focuses on two critical areas: the energy costs and logistical security.

A conflict involving Irán It jeopardizes transit through the Estrecho de Ormuz, one of the most important arteries of global maritime trade and crude oil transport. The consequences for Spanish companies include:

• Increase in the price of oil: The volatility of a barrel of Brent, reference in EuropaThis directly impacts industrial production costs and, very significantly, land, sea and air transport rates.
• Increase in insurance premiums: Insurers drastically raise premiums for war risk (war risk) for ships transiting the region, an additional cost that is passed on to the final freight.
• Supply chain disruptions: Delays or route diversions to avoid the conflict zone can cause stock shortages and logistical cost overruns for companies that depend on components or raw materials from Asia.

The following table compares the risks to contextualize the magnitude of the change in scenario:

Type of Risk	Nature of the Risk	Predictability	Main Impact on Spanish Companies
Tariff Risk (Trade War)	Economic and regulatory	Medium-High (Tariffs are announced and their percentages are known)	Import/export costs, price competitiveness, need to reconfigure markets.
Risk of armed conflict (Irán)	Geopolitical and security	Low (Unpredictable events, rapid escalation)	Volatility in energy prices, physical disruption of the supply chain, increased logistics and insurance costs.

Key points and frequently asked questions about the impact of the conflict in Iran

How does this scenario affect Spanish exports?

It affects it in three main ways: it increases the logistical cost of reaching markets in Asia y Oriente MedioIt reduces competitiveness if energy costs increase production prices, and can cause a contraction in demand in markets directly or indirectly affected by instability.

Which sectors in Spain are most vulnerable?

Energy-intensive sectors, such as the chemical, ceramics, and metallurgy industries, are the first to be affected by rising oil and gas prices. Similarly, sectors like automotive and electronics, with their supply chains, are also impacted. just-in-time Highly exposed to maritime routes passing through the region, they face a high risk of disruption.

Why does the Fed consider this risk greater than tariffs?

Because the effects of armed conflict are systemic, unpredictable, and spread rapidly globally. Unlike a tariff, which is a calculable trade barrier, a war impacts investor confidence, the prices of essential commodities, and the physical security of trade—factors that are much more difficult for central banks and businesses to model and mitigate.