Swiss watch exports plummet due to the corrective effect of Trump's tariffs in the US

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International Trade and Luxury Goods

The Swiss watchmaking industry is experiencing a significant drop in exports in early 2026. This decline does not reflect a crisis in demand, but rather a corrective effect following the massive advance of shipments made in 2025 to avoid the new tariffs imposed by the Donald Trump administration in the United States.

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The watchmaking industry of SuizaA key barometer of the global luxury sector has recorded a significant drop in its exports by early 2026However, this decline is not due to a contraction in demand, but is the direct consequence of a distorting effect caused by the massive advance of shipments during 2025 to anticipate the entry into force of the new tariffs imposed by the administration of Donald Trump en Estados Unidos, its main target market.

The 'Boomerang' Effect of American Protectionism

According to data analyzed by BloombergThe current figures are "skewed" by a widespread strategy among Swiss manufacturers in 2025. Faced with the imminent implementation of tariff barriers by the US government, major luxury watch brands massively accelerated their exports to flood the North American market and accumulate a significant stock in its distribution network before costs increased.

This strategic maneuver artificially inflated last year's export statistics. Now, in 2026, the US market is absorbing that inventory, which has led to a drastic drop in new orders and shipments from SuizaTherefore, this is more of an accounting and logistical adjustment than a consumption crisis.

The following table illustrates the evolution of this phenomenon:

Table 1: Illustrative evolution of Swiss watch exports to EEUU (Unofficial data to contextualize the phenomenon).

Period	Export Value (millions) CHF)	Analysis of Variation
Finals 2024	Stable growth	Organic and predictable demand.
Second semester 2025	Record high in shipments	Mass advance orders to avoid tariffs.
First semester 2026	Steep fall	The market absorbs the accumulated stock, and new orders are being held back.

Implications for the Spanish Luxury Sector

This case serves as a crucial warning for Spanish exporting companies, especially those in the high-value consumer goods sector. Bilateral trade experts consulted by Empresa Exterior They point out that the protectionist policy of the current administration of EEUU It can generate similar disruptions in other sectors.

• Volatility risk: Spanish sectors such as high-end fashion, leather goods, footwear, jewelry, or gourmet products (wine, olive oil) could face similar scenarios if they become the target of future rounds of tariffs.
• Supply chain planning: The Swiss case demonstrates the importance of proactive supply chain management, capable of anticipating regulatory changes and adjusting inventory levels in strategic markets.
• Market diversification: Dependence on a single large market, such as Estados UnidosThis increases vulnerability. Diversification into markets in Asia or consolidation in the Unión Europea They are revealed as key risk mitigation strategies.

Key points and frequently asked questions about the impact of tariffs on the luxury sector

How does this situation affect Spanish exporting companies?

This serves directly as a case study on the effects of tariff volatility. It forces Spanish executives to reassess their exposure to the US market and develop contingency plans. The main lesson is that export statistics can be misleading if the underlying geopolitical and regulatory context is not analyzed.

Which Spanish sectors could be next to face similar tariffs in the US?

Historically, value-added agri-food products (wine, olive oil, cheese, ham), as well as fashion, footwear, and automotive components, have been at the center of trade disputes. Any sector with a trade balance favorable to Europa It is likely to be included in future protectionist measures by the administration Trump.

What logistics strategy is recommended in the face of the threat of new tariffs?

A strategy is recommended "supply chain agility"This includes exploring storage options in free trade zones or in neighboring countries. EEUU with favorable trade agreements (such as México o Canadá) to modulate product entry. Likewise, the digitization of the supply chain is crucial to have real-time visibility of inventory and to be able to make quick decisions in the face of abrupt changes in commercial policy.