Raw material shortages and global logistical tensions are reshaping the map of international investments

Cesce Country Risk Report July 13-19, 2026

The increase in export barriers critical mineralsThe restructuring of strategic maritime routes like the Panama Canal and recent shifts in monetary and security policies paint a complex global picture. Major powers are redesigning their supply strategies, directly impacting economic development. logistics and the international trade of companies.

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Supply crisis and protectionism in global mining

The price of a large part of the critical minerals experienced a notable increase between January 2025 and April 2026 due to severe supply constraints, leading to critical materials such as copper, tin and the tungsten to reach all-time highs. The report World Energy Investment published in July by the International Energy Agency (IEA) reveals that China It accounted for more than 70% of the increase in mining production recorded in 2025, demonstrating a strong concentration in the refining industry. Only the rare earth They have shown greater diversification in the market thanks to the entry of new projects in the United States and Malaysia.

Since 2023, Beijing has tripled the number of minerals subject to export controls, citing national security reasons and retaliation for Washington's sanctions. Other key producers have implemented similar measures to maintain high international prices or boost their own domestic industries, as is the case in Mozambique with the graphite, the Democratic Republic of Congo with the cobalt and Zimbabwe with the LithiumThese Chinese controls forced some Western automakers to temporarily suspend operations in 2025. Faced with this risk of shortages, governments in developed countries have quadrupled funding for new mining projects compared to 2023, reaching 65.000 millionFurthermore, the IEA predicts that the boost to the recycling industry could cover nearly 20% of the supply by 2040.

Logistical challenges in Latin America and political readjustments

En PanamaThe combined pressure from the world's two largest powers has triggered a crisis in the world's largest maritime registry. A Panamanian delegation traveled to Beijing from July 16 to 18 following the Supreme Court's decision to revoke the port concessions in Balboa and Cristóbal granted to the Hong Kong-based conglomerate. C. K. HutchisonThe legal action, prompted by pressure from the United States—which is threatening to retake control of the canal—led to immediate retaliation from China, which detained 96 Panamanian-flagged vessels in March and 136 in April, citing security concerns. These tensions threaten a waterway that carries 6% of the world's trade. world trade.

For its part, Ecuador has institutionalized its fight against transnational crime through the National Comprehensive Security Plan 2025-2029 Driven by Daniel Noboa, the plan reduces the 99 strategies of the previous framework to just seven national objectives focused on territorial control of ports, prison reform, cyber defense, and dismantling criminal economic networks, following a 2025 that ended with a record number of more than 9.000 homicides. This roadmap will prolong the presence of the Armed Forces on the streets, although it lacks an overall budget allocated for its implementation.

En VenezuelaOn August 1, a new round of US-backed political negotiations will begin, aiming to put the transition back at the center of the agenda following the June earthquakes. Jorge Rodríguez, a member of the ruling party, will meet with Dinorah Figuera, a representative of the 2015 National Assembly, to discuss the electoral system and political guarantees, initially excluding leaders such as María Corina Machado and Edmundo González from the process.

Strategic alliances, defense and trade in Asia-Pacific

The annual summit of the ASEANThe summit, which opened on July 20 in Manila, is testing the bloc's cohesion by addressing the entrenched conflict in Myanmar, border tensions between Thailand and Cambodia, and the alarming crisis in the South China Sea. Regional delegations will use the presence of US Secretary of State Marco Rubio and Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi to demand assurances from the White House regarding its strategy for a "Free and open Indo-Pacific".

Parallel, India e Indonesia Indonesia has taken a key step toward strategic autonomy following the bilateral summit held in Jakarta between Narendra Modi and Prabowo Subianto. Both countries, seeking to project themselves as middle powers, agreed that Indonesia will acquire Indian missiles. BrahMos y AstraIn addition to sealing a binding agreement to jointly develop the strategic port of Sabang, a vital infrastructure located at the entrance to the Strait of Malacca.

In Oceania, Papua New Guinea He redefined his influence by announcing the closure of the Taipei Economic Office. Foreign Minister Justin Tkatchenko justified the decision by citing his commitment to the policy of "One China"However, he assured that lucrative liquefied natural gas export contracts with Taiwanese firms would not be affected, as his country expands its trade ties with Beijing and maintains its security agreements with Australia.

Impact of the conflict on energy, logistics and hydrocarbons

In Eastern Europe, Russia Russia announced on July 8 a three-week ban on its diesel exports to safeguard its domestic market, after Ukrainian attacks damaged 24 of its 34 largest refineries, taking nearly 60% of its refining capacity offline. Russia, which was projected to account for approximately 11% of global diesel supply by 2025, had already seen a 46% drop in its maritime hydrocarbon shipments during the first half of the year. This crisis has driven up global prices, pushing the premium on benchmark European futures above $60 per barrel.

Simultaneously, the European Union It faces internal contradictions, as the 27 member states purchased 9,89 million tons of Russian liquefied natural gas from the Siberian Yamal plant in the first half of 2026, 18% more than in the same period of the previous year, led by France, Belgium, and Spain. This comes months before the total ban on Russian gas contracts is set to take effect in 2027. Furthermore, the 21st package of EU sanctions is fracturing: Greece is requesting an exemption for its shipping company. DynagasMeanwhile, Germany and Portugal are demanding exceptions for Russian fish, leading diplomats to call for sanctions. "the Emmental" due to the number of lagoons allowed.

En UkraineThe government continued its reshuffle with the dismissal on July 15 of Defense Minister Mykhailo Fedorov, who was responsible for the mass production of drones and the open bidding system designed to reduce arms costs. His departure, which sparked protests across the country, stemmed from tensions with Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskyi and will be filled by General Khmara.

In the Middle East, the exchange of attacks between Saudi Arabia And the Houthi rebels drastically reduced traffic through the Strait of Hormuz and drove the price of crude oil up to $90 a barrel. The Yemeni militia accused Riyadh of bombing Sana'a airport to prevent an Iranian plane carrying a delegation returning from Ali Khamenei's funeral from landing. In retaliation, they attacked Saudi Abha airport with drones, marking the first major clash since the 2022 ceasefire. Despite this context, the economy of Oman Oman held its own with 2,6% year-on-year GDP growth in the first quarter, driven by a 4% increase in hydrocarbon exports, as its ports on the Arabian Sea are not dependent on the Strait of Hormuz. The IMF forecasts that Oman will end the year with 3,5% growth.

Investments and infrastructure in Sub-Saharan Africa

La Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) formally approved the construction of the monumental gas pipeline in Freetown Nigeria-MoroccoWith a length of 6.900 kilometers and an estimated cost of 23.000 millones de eurosIt will connect the Niger Delta reserves to Europe via the gas pipeline Maghreb-EuropeIts operations will begin in 2028 to make the first deliveries of its 30.000 billion cubic meters of annual capacity in 2031, opening operational headquarters in Casablanca and Abuja.

For its part, Angola It is entering the final phase of its privatization program (PROPRIV), seeking to transfer 10 strategic assets before the end of 2026, among which the following stand out: Unitel, endiama, Angola Telecom, Standard Bank Angola y TAAGThe plan has already sold some 120 assets for $1.300 billion, although the sale of the oil company Sonangol It was postponed until 2027, coinciding with the date on which President João Lourenço will leave office.

Macroeconomics and inflation in the United States

La inflation In the United States, inflation offered a respite, falling sharply to 3,5% in June from 4,2% in May, driven by a 9,7% drop in gasoline prices. This data eases the pressure on the Federal Reserve (Fed), whose new chairman, Warsh, has implemented a monetary policy that refrains from anticipating future interest rate moves, urging markets to set prices based solely on real economic data.

In the political sphere, Donald Trump heightened diplomatic tensions by declassifying documents on July 16, accusing the Chinese government of the largest leak in history for allegedly illicitly acquiring more than 220 million voter files in 2020, blaming the "Deep State" of covering up the incident. US intelligence denies technical irregularities in the voting, and Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesman Lin Jian called the accusations "pure fabrications" y "malicious defamation"Meanwhile, Trump maintains a cautious silence on possible tariffs while awaiting Xi Jinping's visit in September.

Source: Cesce