Global logistics forecasts: Market tension and structural transformation
The asset manager Prologis Inc. has presented its roadmap for the immediate future of the sector with the report Seven major predictions for 2026: Supply chain trendsAccording to the data analyzed by Prologis ResearchThe global logistics market is facing a stage of structural tension characterized by supply shortages. Prime Energy restrictions and a significant increase in transport costs are factors that will directly impact operations in Europa y España.
Europe will maintain market tension with minimal availability
One of the most compelling conclusions of the study indicates that international markets will outperform the average, with Europa positioned as one of the most tense regions in the world. It is expected that the unemployment rate remains below 5%, a critical figure driven by a perfect storm: limited speculative supply, high development costs and urban planning barriers.
While emerging markets such Brasil will experience double-digit income growth for the fourth consecutive year and India As the modernization of infrastructure accelerates, the Old Continent will experience supply pressure. EspañaThis reality is palpable in key locations such as Madrid, Barcelona y Valencia.
As detailed Eva Van der Pluijm, Vice President, Research & Strategy of Prologis Europe“The slowdown in development is partly explained by the economic cycle, but the main challenge is now structural in nature. Authorization times are getting longer, electricity connections are limited, and regulation is becoming more complex.”
E-commerce will account for 25% of new logistics hiring
The online channel is consolidating its position as the main driver of demand. Projections indicate that e-commerce will represent close to 20% of world trade and will absorb a quarter of the new logistics leasing contracts.
Although e-commerce in Europa continental is around 10% (far from the 32% of Reino Unido), the margin for growth is ample. By 2030, this figure is estimated to reach 14,7% in España, which will require millions of additional square meters of storage.
| Indicator | Region / Market | Forecast / Key Fact |
|---|---|---|
| Unemployment rate 2026 | Europa | Less than 5% |
| Extra demand for warehouses (annual) | Europa | Between 1,4 and 1,9 million m² |
| E-commerce market share (2030) | España | 14,7% |
| Energy consumption of an automated warehouse | Global | 3 to 5 times higher than the traditional |
| Use of warehouses | Global | Approximately 85,5% (expansionary threshold) |
Energy as a new criterion for location and competitiveness
The availability of electrical power has become a decisive factor in the location of logistics assets. The demand for warehouses “power-ready” is growing, as fully automated warehouses consume between three and five times more energy than traditional assets.
En EspañaThe limited grid capacity in certain areas hinders the implementation of cold storage facilities or advanced automation. However, the country's high solar potential offers a competitive advantage: the development of photovoltaic energy combined with battery storage is emerging as the solution to guarantee operational continuity and reduce costs.
Transportation and space utilization: rising costs
The supply chain will also face a contraction in road transport capacityThis will lead to double-digit tariff increases in 2026. This price increase reinforces the strategic value of well-located assets (“last mile” or close to consumption centers) to mitigate transportation costs.
At the same time, the warehouse utilization rate will approach 85,5%This level is considered expansionary. This will force many companies, especially in essential goods and manufacturing sectors, to resume hiring as they reach their operational limit.
To Cristian Oller, SVP, Head of Asset Management of Southern Europa de PrologisThe situation is clear:España It is in a key position, but will have to address structural challenges such as access to land and energy availability. Modern and well-located assets will be crucial to supporting the growth of e-commerce.”
Key points and frequently asked questions about Logistics 2026
- What will happen to the price of logistics rentals in Europe? Tension is expected to persist with an unemployment rate below 5% due to land scarcity and speculative supply, which, combined with development costs and bureaucratic hurdles, will increase the value of existing assets.
- How will energy affect the choice of industrial buildings? This will be a key criterion. Automation requires 3 to 5 times more energy. EspañaAssets with good electrical infrastructure or solar self-generation capacity (photovoltaics + batteries) will be the most coveted.
- What is the forecast for road transport? A contraction in capacity is expected, which will lead to double-digit tariff increases in 2026. This will prompt companies to seek warehouses closer to the end consumer to reduce this operating cost.