Trump's tariffs impact Spanish mid-sized business exports and dampen optimism

 

tariff policies driven by the administration Trump are beginning to exert tangible pressure on the Spanish business community, especially in the medium-sized business sector. A recent study reveals a significant decline in expectations exporting for the first quarter of 2025, as well as a decline in business optimism, marking a turning point after two years of positive trends.

 

According to the latest edition of the report International Business Report (IBR), prepared quarterly by Grant Thornton to analyze the health and outlook of the middle-market, the export intentions of Spanish companies have fallen by six percentage points, standing at 44%. While this percentage remains slightly above the average for the European Union (43%), is significantly below the overall average of the study (53%).

 

The growth expectation for revenue from international markets has also declined, reaching 45%, a two-point drop compared to the previous quarter. Likewise, the percentage of Spanish companies planning to expand their reach into new markets has suffered a more pronounced contraction, by seven points, standing at 41%. This downward trend in international expansion is replicated, albeit with less intensity, in the European Union and at a global level.

 

Business optimism, a key indicator of economic confidence, has also shown signs of weakening. After two years of sustained growth, the percentage of Spanish business leaders expressing optimism about the future of their businesses has dropped four points to 63%. This decline is in line with the concern expressed by international organizations such as the OECD and the IMF, who have warned about the potential negative impact of the tariff war on global economic growth. Despite this decline, optimism in Spain still exceeds the European Union average by five points, suggesting a relative strength of the national economy.

 

Faced with this uncertain outlook, Spanish companies are taking proactive measures to strengthen their resilience. A significant 33% of companies plan to allocate resources to cyberattack prevention, while 32% are seeking to strengthen their relationships with suppliers and secure their business. supply chainsOther priority investment areas include strengthening IT systems (28,4%) and implementing measures to prevent supply chain disruptions (24,3%).

 

 

After two years of sustained growth, the percentage of Spanish business leaders who express optimism about the future of their businesses has dropped four points to 63%.

 

 

In the words of Ramon GalceranPresident of Grant Thornton Spain: “The complex global economic environment, marked by the latest tariff decisions, is negatively impacting the optimism of our organizations. However, business leaders must take advantage of the strategic position of the Spanish economy, strategically assessing the global and regional impact of trade policies and geopolitical tensions to keep their businesses competitive and resilient.”

 

Despite growing uncertainty, The Spanish labor market is proving surprisingly resilientMore than half of the executives surveyed (48%) plan to increase their hiring over the next twelve months, a five-point increase compared to the previous quarter. This commitment to human talent underscores companies' confidence in their ability to overcome challenges and continue to grow.

 

Regarding other economic indicators, 58% of Spanish companies expect to increase their revenues next year, although this figure reflects a slight quarterly decline. Profitability expectations remain stable, with 55% of organizations anticipating an increase. However, forecasts for sales price increases have decreased slightly.

 

Spanish business leaders recognize the favorable position of the national economy and the crucial role of the European Union in this complex global context. A large majority (72%) believes that Spain's positive economic performance has a positive impact on their daily operations, and 71% view the European Union favorably, highlighting the mobility of goods and capital and financial support as its main advantages.

 

In the field of Your Strategic , there is some caution in areas such as investment in R&D and disruptive technologies, which have seen declines in growth expectations. However, Artificial Intelligence remains a priority technology for most Spanish companies.

 

Finally, the main concerns of Spanish businesses center on the regulatory environment and economic uncertainty, both mentioned by more than half of the companies. Geopolitical instability is also emerging as a growing source of concern. Regarding the debate on bank mergers, the majority of Spanish companies believe it could have a positive impact on their businesses, primarily through increased negotiating power, solidity, and solvency.

 

In short, the Grant Thornton study paints a picture in which international tariffs are beginning to dampen the expectations of medium-sized Spanish businesses, although the resilience of the labor market and confidence in the strength of the national economy offer a counterpoint of optimism in an increasingly complex global environment.