Tariffs cut Spanish wages in two: Containment in the export industry versus increases in strategic sectors

The recent escalation of tariffs between the United States and Europe is casting a shadow over the Spanish economy, with forecasts pointing to a possible GDP contraction of between 0,2% and 3% and a spike in inflation of up to half a percentage point (0,5%). Beyond the macroeconomic figures, the most tangible impact for workers will be felt on their paychecks, creating a deeply divided wage landscape in Spain.

 

According to the latest analyses of the effects of new trade policies, salary developments will be highly uneven. Factors such as sector of activity, dependence on international trade, and professional profile will determine whether a company opts for restraint or is forced to improve its compensation offers.

 

Pressure on Export Sectors

 

Industries with a strong export orientation, such as the automotive, agri-food, chemical, and machinery industries, face what the analysis describes as a "triple challenge": a foreseeable drop in orders, increasing pressure on their profit margins, and the resulting need to contain labor costs.

 

The most exposed companies, particularly those with direct ties to the US market, are already considering measures such as salary freezes, implementing reduced working hours, or, in the most severe cases, workforce adjustments. The automotive industry, already immersed in a profound technological transformation and grappling with excess capacity, could see its adjustments intensify. The metalworking industry and other branches of the traditional manufacturing industry are facing a similar situation.

 

Inflation Adjustments and Negotiation

 

The most immediate and widespread impact will come through inflation. The potential rise in the CPI of up to 0,5%, driven by higher import and raw material prices, will trigger salary review clauses in many companies. "Although 0,5% may seem like a moderate adjustment, the cumulative effect of other previous inflationary factors must be taken into account.", the analysis points out, recalling that "Many companies are already implementing salary increases above 3% for certain profiles to retain talent.".

 

Growing tension is expected between rising wage costs (driven by inflation and bargaining in sectors with a strong union presence) and falling profit margins, especially in the sectors most affected by tariffs.

 

Opportunities in Reindustrialization and Strategic Sectors

 

In contrast, sectors linked to European reindustrialization and the pursuit of strategic sovereignty (energy, industrial automation, clean technologies) show the opposite dynamic. Companies in these areas are already experiencing difficulties attracting and retaining specialized technical profiles, forcing them to improve their conditions. Above-average pay increases are expected in these sectors by 2025.

 

Profiles such as engineers, advanced maintenance technicians, automation specialists, and IT professionals working in industry will be particularly in demand, with salary increases that could exceed 3% next year. This phenomenon coincides with the push for reindustrialization in Europe, which seeks to strengthen the continent's technological independence.

 

The Expert's View

 

Josep Capell, CEO from the CEINSA consulting firm, analyze the complexity of the moment: "We are in a scenario with three simultaneous forces impacting salaries: inflationary adjustment, sectoral reconversion and strategic transformation from the economy." He warns that "companies will have to combine prudence with foresight, adapting their salary policies to a changing reality."

 

Capell emphasizes the need for organizations to review their salary structures with a "double perspective": defensive across sectors at risk y offensive in areas of opportunity, identifying critical positions and applying flexible policies, without forgetting internal equity, especially in view of the upcoming entry into force from the European Directive on salary transparency.

 

It concludes with a call to action: "The time to act is now. Every remuneration decision 2025 and 2026 will mark el competitive positioning of companies in the new economic era that is emerging."