MAPFRE Economics cuts global growth forecast to 2.7% due to tariff tensions

 

This figure represents a decrease of four-tenths of a percentage point compared to the initial estimate made at the beginning of the year. The forecast for 2026 remains at 3%. This is revealed in the update of its «Economic and Sectoral Overview Report«.

 

The financial institution attributes this adjustment mainly to intensification of tariff disputes at the international level, especially driven by the United States trade policy. MAPFRE Economics warns of a global slowdown scenario that, while initially expected to be controlled by central banks, now faces new risks that could lead to less coordinated economic movements at a global level.

 

The report highlights that the main macroeconomic variables will continue to be sensitive to the effects of these trade tensions, the final impact of which will depend on the policies implemented in the coming months. Regarding inflation, MAPFRE Economics projects 3.4% for 2025 (one-tenth of a percentage point lower than the previous forecast) and 2.9% for 2026.

 

Uneven Regional Impact:

 

MAPFRE Economics' analysis anticipates a more severe impact of this new scenario in United States, where a more pronounced slowdown and greater inflationary pressures are expected, which would make it difficult for the government to act. Federal ReserveUS GDP growth is revised to 1.9% in 2025 and 1.8% in 2026 (up from 2.5% and 2% previously), while inflation is estimated at 3% this year and 2.6% next.

 

In contrast, Biasi's eurozone The US could experience less macroeconomic deterioration and more contained inflation, driven by fiscal stimulus, especially in Germany. GDP growth is estimated at 0.8% for 2025 and 1.1% for 2026 (below previous forecasts of 1.1% and 1.4%, respectively), with inflation of 2.1% and 1.8% for the same years.

 

For the set of the emerging countriesGrowth is projected at 3.3% in 2025 and 3.5% in 2026, with inflation at 4.2% and 3.6%, respectively. However, the report highlights notable economic movements among emerging regions due to the impact of U.S. tariff policies.

 

En Latin America, trade tensions have mixed implications. While lower external demand could affect partners dependent on USA like MexicoThese countries could also benefit from a trade redirection and the attraction of capital flows, which could translate into a more modestly variable monetary policy and a relatively stable framework. Economic growth is estimated at 1.9% this year and 2.1% next year, with inflation at 8.8% and 8%.

 

Asia appears to face a more pronounced impact from the trade dispute, especially in China, which has led to a sharper cut in forecasts for the region. Asia-Pacific as a whole is expected to grow 4.3% in 2025 and 4.4% in 2026, with inflation of 0.4% and 1%. For China specifically, growth is forecast at 4% in 2025 (down from the previously estimated 4.3%), and the 4% forecast for 2026 remains unchanged, with inflation of 0.2% and 0.8%.

 

Insurance Sector Maintains Positive Outlook:

 

Despite the downward revision of global growth, MAPFRE Economics believes that the Spanish insurance sector will maintain its good performance, backed by economic growth and interest rate levels. Life insurance premiums are expected to increase by 4.3% and non-life insurance premiums by 3.9%. The sector's profitability remains positive thanks to moderate inflation and positive interest rate curves. Financial income will continue to contribute significantly to profits, driven by sector investments and savings-linked life insurance activity.