Business optimism: The Spanish Chamber of Commerce predicts a stronger GDP growth in 2025

 

La national demand It is consolidating its position as the main driver of Spanish economic activity, according to the recent report by the Spanish Chamber of Commerce. household consumption This is the factor that best explains this upward correction, and it is now expected to grow by $3,3\%$ en $2025$, half a point above the previous estimate.

 

This impulse is directly related to the strength of the labor marketForecasts indicate that job creation could end the year with a significant increase. $2,6\%$, with an unemployment rate that would fall to $10,5\%$In fact, the Chamber's projections estimate that between $2025$ y $2026$ could be generated More than $900.000$ new job positions.

 

Another key element is the business investmentEspecially the one intended for equipment goodswhose growth forecast skyrockets to $7,9\%$ all with $2025$This strong investment dynamism is favored by the execution of the European funds Next Generation EUalthough a moderation is expected in $2026$ as the deadline for the execution of these projects approaches.

 

Despite the strong performance of exports, the surge in imports will mean that the external sector will detract from growth.

 

 

Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments

 

In the area of ​​international business, although the Chamber has revised upwards the increase in exports to a $3,6\%$ en $2025$The external sector will have a negative effect in GDP. The reason is the strong import growth ($5,5\%$This behavior is in line with the strong performance of domestic consumption and investment. As a result, the contribution of external demand to growth will be negative by four tenths of a percentage point.

 

Inflation and International Context

 

Regarding prices, expectations of inflation (CPI) They have also been revised upwards for $2025$, standing in the $2,6\%$ (three tenths higher than the previous forecast), due to the recent behavior of the index. Core inflation is estimated at $2,4\%$.

 

The update of these forecasts occurs in a international environment of less uncertainty, marked by the dissipation of tariff risks and the easing of geopolitical tensions, although the recovery in the Euro zone It remains "weak and heterogeneous".

 

Spain, in this context, positions itself to head of the major economies of the Eurozone, stringing together quarters with higher-than-expected growth, standing out against countries like France or Germany.

 

Outstanding Structural Challenges

 

Finally, the Spanish Chamber of Commerce wanted to emphasize the need to take advantage of this dynamic phase to address the structural issues that weigh down the economy. Among them, the institution emphasizes the importance of: Establishing a clear path for reducing the high public debtImplement measures that promote productivityReduce external dependence on critical raw materialsTo mitigate the difficulties that companies encounter in fill vacancies In the labor market.