In an environment of maximum uncertainty, companies need open markets, commitment to multilateralism and a safe regulatory framework

Set of Spain's foreign business

Trends as of October 14, 2022

At Empresa Exterior we have once again summoned the experts to an online set of foreign business trends to analyze the current complicated moment, see what its effects are on internationalized Spanish companies, venture what future prospects await them and advise them on how to face their exit. To the exterior.

---

On this occasion they intervene:

• Marta Blanco, president of CEOE International
• Jaime Montalvo, International Director of the Spanish Chamber
• Sergio Prieto, commercial advisor of the Spanish Representation to the United Nations and the World Trade Organization in Geneva
• Beatriz Reguero, director of the Account Area of ​​the State of Cesce 
• Antonio Bonet, president of the Exporters and Investors Club

 

In February 2022, just before the war in Ukraine, we organized an online set on foreign business trends, in which it seemed that we were in “exit from the crisis” mode after the pandemic. However, at that time we were not able to see the scope and repercussions that the Russian invasion would have on our economy and that of the world. What is the situation now for the internationalized Spanish company? Is there more or less uncertainty? What are the main threats and risks?

 

Martha White: “Clearly there is much more uncertainty. Because we are in a situation in which there are several crises that are overreacting. We have covid, we have Ukraine and we have geopolitical tensions. Undoubtedly If there is one word that defines the situation we find ourselves in, it is uncertainty., which puts many challenges before us.”

 

Jaime Montalvo: “When we held the last outdoor set we were indeed witnessing a generalized recovery of the world economy. In addition, the bottlenecks that the covid had produced, not all, but without a doubt international transport, were recovering their rhythm. There was a lack of mobility for people, but not so much for goods, and there had been great congestion in ports, increased freight costs... all of that was beginning to improve. -At the same time an economic recovery, exports... everything was recovering. But there were also a series of tensions, that is, we had a problem with the supply of raw materials, components for certain industries and that has now been consolidated.

 

The additional problem that the war in Ukraine has produced, in my opinion, has a lot to do with two elements: first, the increase in energy prices and some basic inputs for the agri-food sector. And this added to an enormous level of uncertainty, a global level uncertainty, because we are facing geopolitical tensions, facing a war scenario for which there is no clear solution, and where, although the European response has been very positive, companies are They are doomed to a scenario in which We are not going to find an environment for adequate international trade. And the evidence is the reduction of the forecasts of all organizations regarding economic growth and trade growth. So we are facing a worse scenario and the question is how companies can deal with it.”

 

Is it a difficult time for exporters and investors?

 

Antonio Bonet: “The uncertainty is much greater today than it was a few months ago when we were together at the last plate. The issue of threats, which you mentioned before, I believe that We must distinguish between short and medium term threats and long term threats. A few months ago we were basically thinking about long-term threats, the increase in protectionism, the trade war, the US-China... And what we have found with the war in Ukraine is not only increases in the costs of raw materials, food products, but also two other very important topics that have been accentuated in recent months: inflation and recession worldwide. And this, together with increases in the dollar's interest rate, which are causing the dollar to appreciate, that is good for exports because those of us who sell in euros are more competitive, but our costs increase for everything we import in dollars. And in addition, it is leading many of Spain's client countries to situations of currency shortages, risk of insolvencies, which makes it a complex and difficult situation. 

 

At the Exporters Club we think that those medium-long term risks that I was talking about a moment ago have taken a bit of a backseat. What is urgent and important today is energy, inflation, recession...This is already affecting us, today; It is affecting companies. The other thing affects us, but it is a little removed; We will have to talk about it again and we will have to find solutions to prevent these risks that are upon us.”

 

At CESCE you precisely presented your annual country risk study last July: International Panorama 2022; Beatriz, could you give us a summary of its keys?

 

Beatriz Reguero: “It is a publication that we make every year, about June, July, trying to capture the key elements that we think are relevant to characterize the international situation. It is a document that takes a slightly deeper look than is usual; We try to look at issues that have medium-term importance within the evolution of the world. I think we have been quite right with the topics we chose because they greatly determine the evolution of the country and what are the topics we are talking about right now. 

 

The first article is called “It rains in the wet” and what it highlights a little is this what we are talking about now: how the supposed exit from covid, the recovery that we were experiencing, how it has been affected by two external shocks absolutely dramatic as it is the war in europe on the one hand, and on the other hand, China's zero covid policy, which has had a very important effect on its own growth rate and therefore on the growth rate of the entire world. And how these two external shocks have generated rampant inflation at some times of the year, which also with the little room for monetary policy and little room for fiscal policy, since they call into question a little and generate additional uncertainty about how we are going to move throughout the year and especially, already in year 23. And what they also characterize is a financially much stricter scenario than to which we have been accustomed, and therefore, we are going to move in an environment of much scarcer and more expensive financing, with all the challenges that this generates. 

 

There is another article that explains in some way the reasons for the war, of the war in Ukraine, of the war in Europe, which we say quite naturally, but it is still a very dramatic event. Explain all this Putin's nationalist revisionism strategy, which he has been developing for some time, and explains what the origin is and what his medium-long-term strategy has been, why he has chosen this moment in time, if he has seen a certain weakness on the part of the United States, perhaps in his strategy towards Asia-Pacific. They are elements to understand the dynamics of this event of political violence in the center of Europe.

 

There is a third article, which may be less relevant or talked about less but which also seems very powerful to me, which is what is happening in the Sahel area, in Africa. And seeing how all its internal and typical problems have always been there, with weak governance, with a problematic institutional situation, with a lot of poverty, with social tensions, like a growing jihadist movement. And how the fight between the different powers, in this case between the United States and China, is also taking place in this part of the map and therefore how it is also generating very worrying movements, with many coups d'état and quite political instability. striking. And it is another topic that we don't talk about much but it seems very relevant to me.

 

And the fourth article, one of the most interesting, focuses the energy transition but from a point of view that is not talked about much either. We are going to move on from a moment in which oil has marked, for decades and I would say centuries, the wealth or poverty of specific countries and how it has marked all economic evolution, and we are going to go to the age of metals. How there is a whole development of extractive industries with new metals that are very relevant for the energy transition because they are relevant for the wind, photovoltaic, solar, etc. industries. And they also have the characteristic that the deposits are concentrated in quite complicated countries and their subsequent manipulation or manufacturing is also highly concentrated in China. Therefore the new era of metals has some geostrategic connotations very important ones that we are talking about, probably little in relation to the structural effect they are going to have.”

 

Sergio, what prospects for world trade does the World Trade Organization (WTO) estimate for the remainder of 2022 and 2023?

 

Sergio Prieto: “The perspectives that the WTO manages are not good, they are downward. In fact, on October 5, the last report was published, updating the data for April and what we pointed out is that At a macro level, world trade is going to close this year with a growth of 3%. It is not a bad figure if we see what has happened this year in February, but it is true that for the 2023 A growth in world trade of 3,4% was expected and the latest figures are already saying that there is going to be a slowdown and that practically growth will be 1%, there will hardly be any growth in world trade. 

 

This slowdown is due to three main reasons. One of them is the ukrainian war Obviously, it is affecting both developed countries, such as Europe, and perhaps in the medium term in less advanced and poor countries due to the effects it is having on food security, increased prices of cereals, fertilizers, etc. 

 

In second place, inflation, especially due to the increase in energy prices, which is also linked to fertilizers and other issues; and finally a possible tightening of monetary policies: The increase in interest rates to deal with inflation can also produce certain instabilities in some countries, which will probably reduce their imports.

 

The WTO report is always characterized by the fact that they make an average analysis and then make two scenarios, one optimistic and one pessimistic. The average growth they have detected has been 1%. In the optimistic scenario, a solution to the conflict in Ukraine can be reached in the short term and world trade recovers a little, since they would be talking about a growth of 4,5%. In a very pessimistic scenario, where the conflict continues, inflation continues... we would be talking about a drop in world trade of 3%. With which right now the situation is very unstable"We cannot say for sure what will happen next year." 

 

And yet, despite the complex international situation, our foreign trade continues to be dynamic, with export growth that is higher than other economies in our environment. Spanish merchandise exports increased by 24,2% from January to July 2022 compared to the same cycle of the previous year and reached 222.961 million euros, a historical maximum for this period. What do you think are the reasons for this good behavior?

 

Antonio Bonet: “It is indeed a record. We have never had such high exports but I think we have to look at the fine print of the figures. Indeed In value they have increased by 24% but in volume they have increased by 6%, which is very good, but only 6%. It is true that our exports have grown more than those of other countries around us, but if we look at the other part of foreign trade, imports, they have grown by 40% in value, in volume they have grown by 17%. In prices they have grown more than export prices and what this has caused is a trade deficit, both the absolute and the non-energy balance, which has skyrocketed. And what that means is less growth or negative growth for Spain. 

 

It is true, it is a record, but it must be qualified. Because the figures are not so spectacularly good either, especially if we compare it with what we are buying abroad.”

 

Jaime Montalvo: “Internationalization has a lot to do with the insertion of our production system, the group of companies, in global value chains. This is what has happened, that is, not all imports go as a final destination for consumption in Spain, but they are also inputs for the companies that are exporting. A very clear example is the automobile sector, which is a sector greatly affected by the situation and the shortening of global value chains.

 

At this time, ensuring sufficient imports is absolutely strategic. There is always talk of internationalization, thinking about exports and thinking about investment abroad, but there is no doubt that in a context of insecurity like the one we have now, it is necessary to ensure imports, a sufficiently diversified level of imports. 

 

Indeed, we are seeing that given the problems that occurred in the past with the lack of supplies, it is very likely that a part of this data, apart from the nominal effect that Antonio has commented, has to do with thethe storage needs of companies. That is, not only with absorption by the internal consumer market, but companies in a context of increasingly more uncertainty have been able to buy for maintain strategic reserves. For example, how companies in sectors such as automobiles have gone from just in time, that is, keeping their stocks very limited to what they really needed and with great fluidity in the inputs from suppliers to the  just in case, that is, to have more reserves in case inputs need to be used and there is no possibility of purchasing them on the market. 

 

What is happening is the result of the increasing insertion of Spain and our companies in value chains and that, in itself, is not bad. What happens is that in a context of global uncertainty also we are more exposed to problems that may occur far from our borders and one of the things that companies are already doing is trying to guarantee other, closer and safer sources of supply. A restoring of imports of these components.” 

 

Beatriz Reguero: “I would like to draw a little positive lesson. I think that what we are seeing with the export figures, and I think they are a good example, is that The internationalization strategy of Spanish companies is no longer volatile. In other words, that thing no longer happens to us where when I have a problem inside, I go outside and then I don't, I think that It is already a long-term strategy. And that is perfectly demonstrated. Yes, there are short-term adjustments to the strategy to accommodate what is happening in the world and I think that is a bit of what is happening. I think that if we look at the figures, for example, by destination we see that the Spanish export that we saw a few years ago in which we had managed to lower a little what was the European Union for the benefit of other areas of the world, has risen again in the EU and it is normal in an environment of uncertainty like the one we find ourselves in. 

 

But what is clear, and it seems to me to be the good news, is that Spanish exporting companies are now exporters forever and they are completely internationalized, and therefore I believe that we will no longer see those export movements as large as we saw a few decades ago.” 

 

Marta Blanco: “Regarding the figures and the good performance of exports and others, much mention is made of how companies are acting in this scenario of uncertainty in the best way they can. When you talk to them and ask them how they are overcoming all these problems that have been mentioned, in the end it is with an increase in costs. It must be taken into account. 

 

I think we have to turn on the high beams a little, and think about what Spanish companies need to be able to continue exporting, investing, making internationalization a growth factor in our economy. That's where we have to put the high beams in and see what is needed. I liked what Antonio said that the short term has made everything that we had in a long-term perspective remain in the background. I would add that the short-term measures that must be taken to deal with this whole complex situation conflict with long-term policies. They are not aligned. It is very important that we take into account, although it has remained in the background, what are the fundamental things for companies to be able to continue operating in international markets. It is essential to continue keeping markets open. We are seeing protectionist measures in many countries where our companies are acting, which will clearly harm our exports. We have to continue making an appeal because These protectionist measures are not the solution.

 

There is much talk about restoring, to bring production here; Those things are not so simple. When a company makes a medium-long term decision and establishes a factory in a certain country, it is not so easy to close that factory and bring production to Europe, which is closer. They are not simple and I don't think they are the solution either. Companies need to be competitive. Of course these problems must be faced, but We have to produce in an efficient way and we have to remain competitive, fundamentally to continue attracting investment from abroad, which is what we need. 

 

There are also schools of thought that talk about increasing trade with those countries with which we share values ​​and principles. Let's think about what this means, that companies export and trade only with those countries with which we share values ​​and principles. First, because today you share values ​​and the next day you may not share them; second, because Through exports and investment we all win. Now among the great difficulties that we are having, we are seeing that there are certain governments that are taking these measures; We must continue to draw attention to the fact that we need open markets. We need multilateralism, another concept of multilateralism, but we need it. Trading and investing only in countries with which we share values ​​and principles is very good, but then when that happens it has some effects. In the countries on both sides, we will have to see if at the end of the day it is beneficial for only a few countries in the world to understand each other commercially.

 

For the foreign sector and companies to continue growing we need open markets, we need free trade agreements because it is the only thing that will allow us to diversify the sources of supply, to have a diversification of suppliers, of clients, which is what at the end of the day makes companies stronger.” 

 

Sergio, I wanted to ask you for a brief note about one of the most powerful export sectors in Spain, which is agri-food, and how it is affected by the risk of a global food crisis that we are talking about.

 

Sergio Prieto: “I believe that the agri-food sector is an export power. We are far beyond our possibilities as a country, in terms of GDP we are twenty-second or third and as an agri-food exporter we are seventh or eighth in the world.

 

From my experience, I am no longer here as a counselor at the WTO but as the former director of ICEX in Galicia and what I lived there for three and a half years, Agri-food companies are very well prepared. We are very lucky with the agri-food sector because on the one hand we comply with the standards of the European Union, which is one of the most demanding in the world in terms of quality. And then  We are able to compete via price with very good quality, With which factually we hardly have competitors other than the EU member countries themselves, with third countries we hardly have competitors. With which our food products enter the markets quite well. Yes, there are problems, especially protectionism, health measures that prevent us from entering many countries, but they are solved relatively well. 

 

Returning to Spain's foreign trade data, I also had several questions to say. He wanted to mention the issue of regular exporting companies, which is a concept that we use a lot, the need to have increasingly regular companies at the export level because when these complicated situations arrive, and there is instability in the market, these companies remain. It was a big structural problem that we had in Spain and little by little with all the plans that had been made in the last 15, 20 years, work has been done and we have managed to create a number of regular companies that when these moments of Uncertainty remains in the countries, their sales may not increase but they do remain. That is fundamental. 

 

Referring to imports, I always said the same thing when I was in Galicia, using the example of the automobile and the fishing sector. We have a trade deficit: we import much more than we export, but with that import we cover our national demand and we also export and are powerful exporters, especially in frozen fish.

 

And analyzing the data, what we are seeing is that there is growth. It is true that that dependence on the EU It follows us, in quotes, killing, it has always been our achilles heel and it will be next year when demand from European markets drops significantly and we will see it in companies that are not able to sell in European markets. But on the other hand I have seen the data of increase in exports from PASE countries, that plan of the Secretary of State for Commerce to promote exports in third countries. There are 12 countries, and exports to these countries have increased by 22%. As far as possible, the diversification that we are seeking to countries outside the EU does seem to have grown.

 

And finally I wanted to comment on the issue of multilateralism. A change is needed to see things in the long term and with perspective. And yes it is true that free trade agreements must be promoted but they depend on the EU and take three, four, five or six years to negotiate and another three, four, five years to implement. If that You have to be very attentive to see what agreements are being negotiated to enter those countries, so that by the time it comes into force they will already be present. Because many times what happened to us is that we were waiting for it to come into force to go to the companies and there was nothing to do. What we have to do is be in that market while the free trade agreement is being negotiated so that when it comes into force we will already be competing with German, Italian, French, and Dutch companies, because that is really our competition, the European companies that They are also in those countries.” 

 

What are the strengths of the Spanish company? And the weaknesses? And how can we make companies better prepared and more competitive?  

Jaime Montalvo: “The question is the million dollar question. The question and issue that all of us who have been working in internationalization for many years ask ourselves. I'm going to try to summarize it a little, but it's undoubtedly a complex topic.. The Spanish company has shown strengths that we were unaware of; that is, as it has been incorporating internationalization into its own business model and now has 55.000 regular exporters. The Spanish company has gained competitiveness, but also in the face of shocks we have seen the capacity for adaptation, innovation, in companies. They have invested in talent, they have invested in brand and, furthermore, among their strengths are European standards, with the quality that this implies. They are traditional strength factors. 

 

From the weaknesses side, the same analysis has also been systematically done: small size of the exporting company, poor diversification of its export markets. In the end this affects its smaller scale and ability to face certain market situations. It is also true that a small size is not necessarily a handicap, right? I believe that there are many small and medium-sized Spanish companies that have managed to successfully establish themselves in market niches. 

 

What is very important is that the institutional system that supports internationalization and everything that has to do with the regulatory framework does not diminish the strengths of our companies. I think we have a company that has demonstrated this; There are the figures, how exports have gone from representing 23% to 35% of GDP, It is clear that the Spanish company has internationalized. At first in a temporary way as a response to a crisis, but now it is a structural phenomenon and therefore they have developed their own strengths.” 

 

Martha White: “I don't think there is a single Spanish company pattern that says these are the strengths, these are the weaknesses, what there are are issues that can make our companies stronger. Understanding more competitive strengths to compete in international markets. I think there is an aspect here that has not yet been addressed that has to do with a double transition, which is make the green transition and the digital transition. I think that all those companies that have already started their path before, because this does not come from now. Perhaps it is better to talk about the strengths and weaknesses of sectors, not the strengths and weaknesses of companies. There are many sectors that have already opted for this double transition a long time ago; clearly these These are issues that will gain weight in the strategy of companies precisely to be more competitive. 

 

And then a milestone because it is very related, we talk about the double transition because we are very mediated by the Next Generation funds but all of this is very related to innovation; Those companies that are more innovative in processes, products, and services are also more competitive. and they are the companies that are going to be stronger when it comes to entering international markets. 

 

And then there is another fundamental aspect that has to do with talent. Also Those companies that are capable of promoting talent in organizations will have a greater ability to compete. And in that sense I want to make a call, every time you travel around you see it with all the companies, the difficulties that exist in the mobility of international talent, in all companies and countries to attract talent. We have been to Australia and it was clearly a demand from the Spanish companies established there and this is a fundamental aspect where international organizations such as the OECD can do a lot when it comes to “Seek homogeneous regulations between countries so that international talent can move with much fewer restrictions.”

 

Beatriz Reguero: “I think it's easier to see what strengths and weaknesses specific sectors have than individual companies. But I think that in general it can be said that The Spanish company has many strengths and is very competitive and we have sectors in which we are leaders; In perhaps not very large sectors, maybe that size of a medium-sized company, but one that is very cutting-edge in what it does, we also have them. I think that the evolution there is very good and that there are many strengths to exploit. From the administrations and from outside the only thing you can do is provide a framework and let companies operate without putting additional obstacles on them. Multilateralism as a concept is the only thing that truly enriches the growth of trade and that has been the case in recent years.

 

And I wanted to put the focus a little on one of these transitions that we have been talking about and it is the energy transition.A topic we talk about little. We could probably detect a weakness not only of Spanish companies, but of all companies right now. the increase in energy costs. Obviously it is one of the short-term problems that we are managing, but I don't think it is a short-term problem. I believe that this energy transition must be approached in another way. I believe that we are not doing it well because the increase in the price of energy is not a specific issue now due to the war in Ukraine. I believe that we are immersed in a process of sustainability, of green transition, which has an obvious cost, which companies have to adjust and assume in the long term, because it is not going to be cheaper, probably in the long term, and what we have is for this energy transition to accompany it and create the scheme for companies to transit as quickly as possible to that final situation that we are still not very clear about what it will be like. 

 

I think that European companies are in a slightly worse and different situation than those in the rest of the world because competitiveness also belongs to Europe compared to the rest. I think that We always slow down a bit on regulatory issues. and we end up having much stricter regulations in Europe than in other countries. And taking into account that the axis of the world is no longer the West, but it is already much more in Asia, I think it is a very relevant issue that we have to make ourselves look at because it has a lot to do with what we can do from here to generate a different framework. I believe that trying to see the world a little from the outside and not so much from the European Union could facilitate some of these processes and I believe that the energy transition is one of them. I think that right now there is an absolute incompatibility with several objectives within the EU of energy transition towards sustainability, with energy independence and something else, It is impossible to square the circle in a moment. I think we have to be able to set realistic objectives, how we want this transition to occur and give a lot of support to our companies in this process.”

 

Antonio Bonet: “We all agree on strengths and I think it must be highlighted that the main strength is the change of model in many companies where the internationalization that is part of its DNA, and that is so.

 

If we look at the weaknesses of Spanish exports, we have three main ones: One, the number of regular exporters. It is true that it has grown a lot but the latest statistics available what they say is that regular exporters that sell more than 50000 euros, there are only 25.000 companies, 25.000 companies is nothing. We have a country of 3 million companies, although the majority be autonomous.

 

Second concentration in the European Union. Okay, in times of crisis it is very good; They are safe markets in which there is practically no payment risk, but they are not growing as much as other countries and that is a clear weakness.

 

And thirdly, the issue of technological content of our exports,  where the medium or medium-high technological content is relatively low for what could be a country of our size, our level of development, our per capita income.

 

And I think these three weaknesses have in some way, the concentration in the European Union, perhaps not, but the other two have a common factor in them, which is the average size of our companies, which is very low.And it is not an issue that the company wants to remain small. In general, companies like to grow, but if the regulatory environment we have makes it difficult for companies to grow with higher tax obligations based on very low thresholds, such as the obligation to have a works council based on very few workers, things of these... well, to the companies You are discouraging them from growing. What is clear is that the propensity to export or internationalize of medium-sized companies is much higher than that of small-sized companies, within which there are small companies that export and that are doing it very well. "It is essential to facilitate the growth of companies, to increase the average size, to try to solve some structural problems that we have as a country."

 

Sergio, is multilateralism at risk?

Sergio Prieto: “It's the million dollar question. I believe that it has always been at risk, what happens is that there have been moments of more tranquility, in which it was less at risk, and moments of more uncertainty. 

 

Right now we have a kind of perfect storm. We come from a very important economic financial crisis 2008-2012; When we were recovering, a pandemic arrived, the first in a hundred years; and now without ending the pandemic we have a war in Europe. And to all this andThe multilateral system seems not to be flexible enough for the needs we have in the 21st century. . Yes, it may be at risk, especially due to the protectionist measures that many countries have begun to take, especially with the pandemic. In the WTO, with 164 members, everything has to be approved by consensus, because perhaps in the 40s, 50s, 60s of the last century, if it took six or seven years to approve something, nothing would happen because everything was going very slowly, but With the speed of the 6st century, many things happen in six years, you cannot give yourself 7 or XNUMX years to negotiate. There is a lot of talk about the reform of the WTO, I would not talk about reform, I would talk about modernization to adapt it to the needs of the 21st century. I believe that if solutions are not found to the problems we have today, the functioning of the entire system will be called into question, not only of the WTO but of the United Nations in general.

 

A section with the size of the foreign sector, of the companies. I remember when I was studying the opposition many years ago that we said that the Spanish foreign sector had a series of structural problems and temporary problems. In the structural ones we always say the same thing, concentration of exports from European markets, size of the exporting company, which is very small, and high energy and technological dependence. For X years we still have the same problems. Maybe we have improved a little but we still have them. 

 

Regarding the size of the companies, I remember an automotive components businessman who told me, 'make no mistake, Sergio, and'size matters', it matters a lot, especially to obtain financing. You may be an SME, you may want to go abroad, have very good marketing plans, but you have to look for markets because they are not going to give you financing. Size matters to obtain that financing and be able to be in more countries. 

 

In relation to needs, I think we have several needs within what the SME is, and it is the issue of training, experts in digital marketing and electronic commerce. It is necessary, I don't know if from universities or other areas, to create experts in international trade; avoid the flight of talent and incorporate experts into these management areas. Increasingly, many companies are already making internationalization one of their basic pillars. And finally digital marketing and electronic commerce. We are in year 22: if you are not on the internet, if you do not have electronic sales, no matter how much you want to export, you are not going to do anything. Electronic marketing experts are needed. 

 

Finally, I would like to know your impression of what we can expect in 2023 for international business. 

 

Martha White: "We must maintain optimism despite the situation. We have to reinforce all those positive aspects that have been mentioned; alert companies to the most negative issues, especially for administrations. The regulatory environment in which our companies operate is fundamental and also the regulatory environment that foreign companies that invest in Spain find themselves in. Forgive me for insisting but I hope that a pandemic is enough for us all to realize that There are certain problems that are only addressed in a global way; “We need global solutions to global problems and unilateral measures are not the best policy at this time.”

 

Jaime Montalvo: “My last reflection would be that Our companies have shown that they know how to do their job. Obviously we lack elements to be able to compete at 100 percent. We will always lack them, but it is also true that in this framework of uncertainty there are opportunities. The green transformation agenda itself, of digital transformation, is something in which companies are involved and will have opportunities. It is also very important that the administrations, apart from maintaining the instruments of information, advice, promotion and financing, companies must be given security for them to do their job. And to give security to companies, the risks must be covered. I think there has to be a commitment, beyond the recovery funds, there has to be a commitment by the administrations to provide the private sector with what it needs, which is security, and there we are talking about the framework of institutional agreements at the international level; of multilateralism; We are talking about economic diplomacy in the best sense of the word. We are talking, of course, about be able to create a friendly regulatory environment and of course, public-private collaboration and with this note I end. It is essential that administrations are guided by the interests of companies, which are those of society. There is enormous value in political action taking into account the needs of the private sector because it is what will drive the recovery.”

 

Antonio Bonet: “I would like to make a comment on what we would like to see happen next year from two points of view, from the point of view of internationalization policies, export promotion, and from the point of view of general policy. . 

 

From a promotion point of view I think things are being done well, do we need to improve? Yes, eh? But there is one thing where it is advisable to completely turn the chip around. What companies need is to adapt to the new global value chains, which means, above all, SMEs that need to identify new suppliers outside of Spain, and that is a change in mentality, that is, we must also help companies, SMEs, to identify suppliers and import.

 

From the point of view of general policies we have to encourage the average size of companies to increase and we have to reduce regulatory uncertainty. We are recently having cases of tax increases on certain sectors, with the rich paying more taxes, it is understood that they are businessmen. The company has to have certainty. If you do not have certainty and you have a lot of uncertainty, you will not invest. and if it does not invest, the country will not move forward, because those who ultimately create wealth and employment are the companies. And we need a fiscal policy that looks at the medium and long term, because we continue to have very high public spending, a deficit and a very high public debt, and sooner or later that must be paid. What we would like to see happen next year is for policies and measures to be implemented along these lines.” 

 

Beatriz Reguero: “I think my reflection would go to encourage companies to manage risks in an environment of maximum uncertainty. Given your question about what 2323 will be like, we have no idea what it will be like and this is already an important and uncertain element in itself. What is clear is that It's going to be a more complicated environment from a financial point of view. and this is very important, especially for medium-sized companies, because the financing capacity is going to be much lower, because it also catches us all with already relatively high debt figures and, therefore, we all have very little margin in debt. and, therefore, in financing. 

 

And this is an issue to be managed and also with many geopolitical risks and external shocks, which is difficult for us to understand and, therefore, what I suggest, as always, is to manage the risks and put them in the hands of entities like us, That's what we are for, to manage outside risks. We have a very high international risk-taking capacity and I believe that we can help on many occasions. We are a fairly non-distorting instrument, we are an example of public-private cooperation.

 

And, therefore, I think that we must take advantage of these types of things to facilitate financing and to help businesses, from the smallest to the largest, to continue operating in the international market. I believe that the trend of the Spanish company, with all the structural problems it may have, has only improved in all the aspects that we have been talking about over time. I think this is also an issue to take into account. And therefore I wish everyone the best possible luck in the 23rd year but above all be very careful with risk management.”

 

Sergio Prieto: “We have had 12, 14 years of uncertainty, 2008-2012 crisis, later recovery, pandemic, now what we have now, There is a lot of experience in managing times of uncertainty. 

 

May the short term allow us to see the long term; Let this short-termism that we have to have for the year 2023 not take away our long-term vision. 

 

And a phrase that I always liked to say in relation to the dependence we have on the EU, There is life beyond Turkey, there is another world and we must explore it. And maybe in these circumstances is when you have to try to do it. We have experience and capacity to be able to face a year 2023 that will have many uncertainties but there will always be opportunities.”