Spain – Switzerland
Real GDP growth weakened somewhat towards the end of 2016, registering +0,1% quarter-on-quarter in Q4 (unchanged from Q3) and +0,6% year-on-year (+1,4% in Q3).
Even so, overall annual growth in 2016 was +1,3%, indicating that the impact of the shock from the sharp appreciation of the CHF following the removal of the CHF:EUR cap in January 2015, which reduced growth to +0,8% in 2015, is gradually diminishing. This is also reflected in the foreign trade figures, which show that real exports grew by +4,6% in 2016 (+2,2% in 2015). Imports expanded by +2,7% (+4,3% in 2015), so net exports made a positive contribution of +1,6 percentage points to growth in 2016 (-0,9 percentage points in 2015). However, this was offset by a sharp reduction in inventories, which subtracted -1,8 percentage points from growth (+0,5 percentage points in 2015). Meanwhile, fixed investment accelerated to +2,5% in 2016 (+1,5% in 2015), while private and public consumption continued to grow at a solid pace, at +1,2% and +1,9% (+1% and +2,2% in 2015), respectively. The recovery is expected to continue, with global annual GDP projected to grow by +1,6% in 2017 and +1,7% in 2018.
Source: Solunion
Weekly Export Risk Outlook – Euler hermes
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